Friday, August 30, 2013

****** Trading BUY: Cordlife. Share price 1.315. (On to all time high again, broken 1.30 resistance)

Cordlife has consolidated slightly below 1.30 only to break above it today. More upside to 1.36 to 1.40 possible then 1.50. Currently at all time high so momentum may still be there to push it further. As long as 1.30 remains as new support level, bullish and continue to ride the trend with higher stop loss each time.
Stop loss at 1.285.
Maybank KE – 27 Aug 2013
Cordlife Group: Growth Story Backed by Resilient Earnings; Buy, $1.28 - TP $1.47
Ø  Reiterate BUY with a new Street-high TP of SGD1.47, implying a 25x FY14F. Cordlife announced its 4QFY6/13 results yesterday. Recurring net profit is largely in-line with our expectation.Ø  Cordlife’s statement of its transition plan serves as a strong hint that it is ready to launch new product in its pipeline.Ø  We continue to like the company as it delivers attractive results and embark  upon its multi-product expansion across Asia, None of its global cord  blood peers have comparable wide market exposure and strong margin such as Cordlife. 

****** Trading Sell: SIA. Share price: 9.44 (CFD SELL TRADE, Follow up from previous SELL)

Following up from previous Sell call made on 21 Aug 2013. SIA has indeed traded lower on the breakdown of 9.90 support last week. Has tested the 9.50 yesterday and broke down today. More downside can be possible with a final target of 9.00. Immediate support at 9.40 and a break below will see it push lower again to find a new 3 years low.
Buy stop at 9.54

******* Accumulate on Dips for rebound: Semb Marine. Share price 4.16.

Semb Marine has been supported above the 4.10 level since Jan 2012. This support is likely to hold. Possible to accumulate on Dips near the 4.10 support level for a potential rebound. As long as 4.10 is a support, a rise towards 4.30 and 4.40 seems likely. A break below 4.10 can lead it to test critical 4.00 fast.  We would cut all long positions and take up short positions on the breakdown of 4.00 psychological support with a near term target of 3.65.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

******* Trading SELL: Olam. Share price 1.485. ( Broke Critical 1.50) ( CFD SELL only)

Following up from previous SELL call made last Thursday 22 Aug 2013. Olam has indeed traded lower and consolidated above the 1.50 for the past 3 days. Today we have seen it broke below the 1.50 critical support level. More downside can be possible to 1.40 then 1.36 level. Resistance would now be 1.50 where there are huge sellers stacked now. Buyers got thrown off at 1.50 just now rapidly leading to sell down. Bearish as long as still below the 1.50 immediate resistance. Head and shoulder pattern bearish pattern mentioned in previous post.
Buy stop at 1.515

******** Still a BUY: Blumont. Share price 1.82. (Just follow the trend, high can go higher.........)

Following up from previous BUY call on 15 Aug 2013. Blumont has defied all odds on a downwards market and continued to trade higher each trading day. Currently trading above the 1.80 new support level.  Immediate resistance level would be 1.84 which it has tested for the past 2 days including today. Very likely to head higher again to 1.90 then Critical 2.00 on this break of 1.84. Can consider accumulating on dips above the 1.80 support level. Those who already have long positions bought many weeks back can still consider averaging up to further ride the uptrend. Do remember to raise your stop loss higher each time it moves higher. Till now, no end to upside in sight just take a ride and set clear trailing stop losses. Still a BUY TILL IT PROVES otherwise.
Stop loss at 1.77.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

****** Trading Sell: SGX. Share price 7.18. ( If the 7.20 remains as resistance)

Following up from previous Sell call made on 22 Aug 2013. Sgx has indeed not broken up above 7.40 and has headed lower on a weak market.  7.20 support has been broken as of now and more downside likely if it does not creep back up. Possible to head lower to test the Critical 7.00 support. As long as 7.20 is a resistance, we are bearish. In this case a downside breakdown of 7.00 will trigger a bearish acceleration towards 6.80.
Buy Stop at 7.24                                                                                                                             

******* Trading Sell: Ying Li. Share price 0.39. (CFD SELL only)

Follow up from previous SELL call made on 20 Aug 2013. Ying Li has broke the 0.415 support again and went below the critical  0.400 psychological support yesterday. Downside to 0.37 then 0.34. As long as 0.400 is not broken back up, we favour a down move with final downside target at 0.30.
Buy Stop at 0.42.

******* Trading Sell: Yanlord. Share price 1.19. (CFD SELL only to ride the market weakness)

Yanlord has broken the 1.20 Psychological support level on a down market today.. Has been supported above 1.20 for the past 2 months and rebounded back to above 1.25 each time. More downside can be possible on this breakdown. As long as 1.20 is a resistance now, we are bearish. Downside target to 1.15 then 1.12 then 1.10.
Buy Stop at 1.215

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

******* Trading BUY: OKH Global. Share price 0.565.

Following up on previous BUY call made on 16 Aug 2013. OKH has consolidated below the 0.56 temp resistance level for about 2 weeks. Today we have seen it broke above the 0.56 resistance level on TOP 5 Volume. Likely to head higher in the coming days with a near term target at 0.600. A break above 0.600 can pave the way to 0.64. As long as 0.55 continues to hold as a strong support level, we are bullish and would continue to ride the uptrend till it proves otherwise.
Stop loss at 0.54

Monday, August 26, 2013

******* Trading Sell: Tiger Air. Share price 0.545.

Following up from Sell call made on 6 Aug 2013. Tiger has traded lower on a weaker market for the past 2 weeks and consolidated slightly above 0.55 support level. Has seen it broke the 0.55 support level today, more downside can be possible if it does not creep back up within the next few days. Trading sell call triggered on break down of immediate support. As long as 0.55 is a new resistance, a decline towards 0.52 to 0.50 seems likely. A downside breakdown of Critical 0.500 will trigger a bearish acceleration to find a new all time low again. Those looking to long, don’t do so till it proves otherwise, cheap can get cheaper. J
But Stop at 0.565.

******* Trading Buy: Mirach. Share price 0.52 (Still a buy on TOP Volume. Supported at 0.500)

Following up from Trading call made last Friday 23rd August 2013 before the breakout of 0.500. Mirach has indeed broken the Critical 0.500 today on TOP 5 volume. More upside is still likely on this break out with a near term target of 0.55 then 0.58. Currently at an all time high at this level. Resistance turned support at 0.500 currently and Bullish as long as 0.500 holds well. Mainly a short term trading call to ride the momentum on this breakout.
Stop loss strictly at 0.485.

******** Clear breakout: Cordlife. Share price 1.25. ( Cleared the 1.20) - BUY

Cordlife has cleared the 1.20 Critical resistance level today on High Volume today. Currently at an all time high at this level. Was trading near the 1.20 resistance level in May and July 2013 separately but failed to cross above each time and consolidated downwards each time. This break could suggest a new phase of uptrend to 1.30 then 1.50 possibly. Would be good to accumulate near 1.20 support level if it does dipped slightly. As long as 1.20 holds as a new support level, we are bullish on this counter. A break above 1.30 can open the way to 1.50.
Stop loss at 1.18.
Maybank KE – 5 AUG 2013
Cordlife Group: Rumoured relaxation of China’s one child policy; Buy TP $1.29
-          According to a Chinese press report, there is a strong rumor that China may relax its one child policy by the end of 2013 and fully implement the policy in 2015. China’s baby stocks have reacted positively on this.
-          If realized, this will be great news for Cordlife as it holds 10% stake in China Cord Blood Corp, the largest cord blood player in China with operations in 4 provinces which in aggregate account for 73% of China’s newborn population.
-          To sum up, Cordlife is in a good stead to reap the benefits of the high potential China cord blood market. We maintain our positive view on the stock and reiterate BUY with TP of SGD1.29 (23x FY14F PER).

Friday, August 23, 2013

******* Monitor Closely: Mirach. Share price 0.47. ( Watch the break of 0.500, average up on breakout of 0.500)

Mirach has tested the 0.48 level which was the high set in July last month. Top 3 volume seen currently. Watch the break out of 0.500 closely. Aggressive traders can consider averaging up on the breakout of 0.500 with a near term target set at 0.55 to 0.58. Mainly a Short term aggressive trading call with tight stop loss. Take profits along the way from 0.54 to 0.50 on break out.
Stop loss at 0.435

******** STI Direction ? Where is STI heading ? Let's take a look.

STI has traded above the 3200 support for more than a month till 1 week ago when it broke this support and world markets started selling off. It has since come down to about 3090 currently as of now. The next critical support that we should look at is 3055 to 3065 level. Sti went to a low of 3055 yesterday before closing higher at 3089. From the charts, we can see that the support set in June 2 months back was about 3065 before it rebounded sharply back to above 3250. This would definitely be a strong support level to watch. Sti trading range would mostly like be from 3055 to 3100 for the next few days. A break below 3050 will serve as a confirmation of more weakness which can lead to 3000 being tested. Only the upside breakout of 3110 will invalidate out bearish scenario, in this case a recovery should shape towards 3180.

******** Upside breakout: Liongold. Share price 1.555. (Cleared 1.50 critically)

Following up from previous call made on 15 Aug 2013. LionGold has traded a week below the 1.50 resistance level on a down market consolidating sideways for the past few days only to break up further when market is positive today. Currently at an all time high at 1.555. Missed the break out of 1.50 where long positions should have been opened around 1.505 to 1.525. Nevertheless, still a Trading call buy for more upside to 1.60 in the near term. Possible to accumulate on any dips near 1.50. As long as the 1.50 stays as a new support level, more bullish momentum can still continue.
Buy Stop at 1.485.

****** Trading Buy: China Env. Share price 0.32.... (Follow up from previous Buy call, broke the 0.300 psychological resistance)

Following up from BUY trading call made 2 days ago on 21 Aug 2013. China Env has announced a proposed placement of up to 65m new ordinary shares yesterday evening. It has broken above the 0.300 psychological level today on TOP 5 Volume after breaking above the 0.275 temp resistance 2 days back. Currently at a all time high and likely to push higher further to head to 0.35 to 0.40 level. As long as 0.300 holds as new support, we are bullish with a short term target to 0.35 then 0.38 first.
Stop loss at 0.285

Thursday, August 22, 2013

***** Trading Sell: THBEV. Share price 0.49. (CFD SELL position only - break down of critical 0.500)

Thai Beverage has broken down the critical support level of 0.500 today convincingly. This support level has been holding since Jan 2013. Likely to head lower on any market weakness to 0.45, 0.40 then 0.385 level. Can hold CFD sell position on this breakdown with a  target from 1.45 to 1.46 level near term. Only the upside breakout of 0.500 will invalidated our bearish scenario. Head and shoulder formation with head formed in May 2013 and lower shoulder levels may signal a reversal back down.
Buy stop at 0.515.

***** Trading Sell: SGX. Share price 7.32. ( Broke 7.40 and 200 DAY MA)

SGX has been trading above the 7.40 immediate support for more than a month before testing it yesterday and further confirming the breakdown today. More down side can be possible to 7.20 then 7.00 level which was well supported in June 2013. As long as 7.40 is not broken up, we favour a down move to these targets. Note that it has also just broken below the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line) today which can signal more weakness ahead. Can consider CFD sell positions to ride any downside. Those who would like to accumulate on dips can do so below the 7.10 level.
Buy stop 7.42

***** Trading Sell: Olam. Share price 1.535. (Head and shoulder formation - more downside possible on weak market) - (CFD SELL only)

Olam has broken the immediate 1.57 and 1.55 support level today on much stronger volume. 1.57 support was holding well in July from where it bounced up again. The break down of 1.55 has further confirmed the short term weakness, this support level has been holding since Jan this year. As long as 1.55 remains as new resistance level, we are bearish with a downside to 1.50 then 1.485.. Note that low in Dec last year was 1.365 so that maybe the level tested again if market continues to weaken. A slight head and shoulder formation with the head formed in May 2013, and horizontal support broken at 1.57.
Buy Stop at 1.565

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

******** Trading BUY: China Env. Share price 0.285.

China Env has cleared the recent high of 0.275 today on TOP 30 volume. Seems like it has broken out of its temporary consolidation phase below 0.275. Range should now be from 0.275 to 0.300. A break above 0.300 can see it trade higher further to 0.35 level potentially. Has been trading consistently above the 20 DAY MA line, broke it slightly last month only to come back stronger. Mainly a short term aggressive trading call with a tight stop loss to ride any short term upside.
Stop loss at 0.265.

******* Trading SELL: SIA. Share price 9.87. ( Broken down 9.90 temp support level)

SIA has broken below the 9.90 support level which has held in June 2013 before bouncing back up. If it does not stay above 9.90 in the coming days, more downside can be possible. Potential CFD SELL trade setup with a near term target downside from 9.50 to 9.70. Only the upside breakout of 9.90 will invalidate our bearish scenario, in this case a recovery should shape towards 10.10 to 10.30.
OCBC – 26 JULY 2013
Singapore Airlines: No re-rating yet
Excluding one-off items, Singapore Airlines’s (SIA) 1Q14 results came in below expectations. Revenue would have fallen slightly while PATMI was inflated by exceptional items and aircraft/parts disposal gains. ). SIA remains plagued by intense competition within the premium carrier space and passenger yields continue to stay depressed. With the outlook for FY14 still expected to remain lacklustre, we anticipate an extension of selling pressure on the counter for the interim. Based on a peg of 0.8x P/Book, we maintain SELL on SIA with a fair value estimate of S$9.50 (S$10.00 previously).

******* Downside still in placed: Noble Group.Share price 0.82. (CFD SELL position still possible to ride the down trend)

Following up from last Friday, 16 Aug 2013 Sell call. Noble has indeed traded lower on a much weaker market for the past few days to a low of 0.81 today.  Likely to consolidate from 0.80 to 0.84 level before any direction is confirmed. Resistance can be kept at 0.85 for now.  Possible to accumulate more SHORT positions on any rebound near 0.85. As long 0.85 is a resistance, we are STILL bearish, in this case a downside breakdown of 0.800 will trigger a bearish acceleration towards to 0.74 to 0.76 near term targets. Aggressive traders can add more short position on break down of critical 0.800 support level and lower buy stop level.
Buy Stop at 0.86 for short position now.
OCBC – 12 AUG 2013
Noble Group Ltd: Downgrade to SELL with S$0.76 FV
Summary: Noble Group (Noble) reported a poor set of 1H13 results last Wed, marred by losses in its Agricultural segment in 2Q13, such that reported earnings only met 20% of our full-year forecast. No doubt the second half tends to be seasonally stronger; but we suspect that its Agriculture segment could continue to be a drag on its overall profitability. As such, we see the need to sharply reduce our FY13 earnings forecast by as much as 43% (FY14 by 18%); the group’s targeted cost savings will probably have a more meaningful impact in FY14. Even as we roll forward our 10x valuation to blended FY13/FY14F EPS, our fair value will drop sharply from S$1.09 to S$0.76. Downgrade our call from Hold to SELL.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

******* Possible Downside: Ying Li. Share price 0.405. ( CFD SELL trade setup)

Ying Li has been trading above the 0.415 support level since Jan 2013, tested this support level in Mar and June 2013 and managed to bounce off both times previously. Today we have seen it broke down the 0.415 critical support level. As such, more downside can be possible to 0.400 then 0.38.A break below 0.38 can see it go to 0.33 to 0.35 level. A slight descending triangle pattern formations where lower highs were formed over the past 4  months. Note that it has also broken below the 200 day MA support just end of last week after staying above it consistently since June last year, may signal some weakness on the downside.
Buy stop at 0.43 for CFD sell trades

****** Trading Sell: Cosco Corp. Share price 0.69.. (CFD SELL only - broke down 0.700 psychological support)

Following up from previous Sell call made on 15 July. Cosco has traded above the 0.700 for about 2 weeks, BUT we have seen it broke down today on a weaker market. Next downside to 0.65 level first. Can continue to hold short positions for specific counters and ride any market weakness. As long as 0.700 remains as the new resistance level, we are bearish. L
Buy stop at 0.715.

******* Possible downside on weak market: DBS. Share price 16.74.

DBS has traded above the 16.90 resistance turned support level for about 3 weeks but has kind of broken down yesterday on a weaker market closing at 16.76. At this level, you can see that it has also just broken BELOW the 20 DAY MA (Green Line) which it has stayed above for more than a month. This downside breakdown can signal a short term retracement back down, with a near term target of 16.50, 16.20 then 16.00. A break down below 16.00 can see it trade lower to 15.60 which is the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line) where it was well supported in June and bounded. Those looking to start accumulate a heavy weight blue chip again can consider around the support levels.

Monday, August 19, 2013

***** Short Term Trading Buy: CNA. Share price 0.235. (1 week consolidation phase cleared)

CNA has consolidated for about a week from 0.200 to 0.225 and has broken up 0.225 immediate resistance level last Friday. Today we have seen it traded higher to a high of 0.245 and currently at 0.235. Support now remains at 0.225.  Still supported above this level today a well. As long as this support holds, possible for it to trade higher in the near term to a near target of 0.27 then 0.300. Currently at TOP 10 volume and momentum still strong. Aggressive traders can consider averaging up further on the break of 0.245 now.
Strict stop loss at 0.215 nevertheless.

Friday, August 16, 2013

****** Trading Buy: OKH Global. Share price at 0.555. ( Broken out of Consolidation phase. More upside in near term!)

Following up from previous BUY call on 25th July 2013. OKH Global has consolidated from the 0.485 to the 0.55 level for about a month, and has finally broken above the 0.55 level today. Likely to head higher to test 0.600 in the coming days or weeks. As long as 0.55 is a new support, a rise towards 0.600 and 0.65 seems likely. Still trading firmly above the 20 DAY MA (Green line) support level and pushing higher on each consolidation phase. Can Ride the uptrend till it proves otherwise.
Stop loss at 0.53.

******** Trading SELL: Noble Group. Share price 0.875 (CFD SELL ONLY)

Following up from previous SELL call on 19 July 2013. Noble Group has now broken the 0.90 psychological level and the immediate 0.88 support level today. More downside can be possible on more market weakness. Next downside target to 0.85 then 0.80. Only the upside breakout of 0.900 will invalidate our bearish scenario. In this case a recovery should shape towards 0.95. Can continue to accumulate short positions as long as upside resistance remains and is not broken above.
Buy Stop at 0.915.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

******** Trading BUY: Blumont. Share price: 1.565. (No end to upside in sight yet, JUST FOLLOW the flow ! )

Following up from previous BUY call made on 29 July 2013.  Blumont seems like its uptrend is still very much intact surging to a new high of 1.565. Like to head to 1.60 or even 1.80 to 2.00 in time to come. TO raise trailing stop loss upwards to 1.545. Can consider accumulating more long positions to ride the upside still. Still a positive counter to hold unless it breaks down any critical support. Trailing stop loss to raise upwards to protect profits each time.

****** Trading Buy: LionGold. Share price 1.35. ( Broken up consolidation, new phase upwards?)

LionGold has broken up 1.30 critical resistance level which it has consolidated below since touching it in July 2012 last year. Could this be a start of a new upward trend upwards. Target from 1.40 to 1.50 possible in the near term. Volume at TOP 20 today currently.
Stop loss at 1.28 strictly.
Announcement – 14 Aug 2013
NEWS – 11 JULY 2013
-- LIONGOLD (LIGO): Remains optimistic on outlook for gold as "long term outlook is well supported by physical mkt dynamics". Highlights "steep fall in px of many gold mining co from the start of 2013 ultimately improves expansion opportunities for LIGO, as an active acquirer of gold assets". Will now also focus on acquisition prospects that are in production, or within 12 mths of production, to meet its annualised 2014 production tgt of 200k oz. Grp's mining portfolio now includes 5.5m oz of gold resources (~900k oz are classified as reserves). Highlights maiden commercial gold sales have reached sgd33.5m.

****** CFD TRADING SELL: Indo Agri. Share price 0.795. (CFD Sell only)

Following up from previous SELL call made just a few days back on Monday 12 Aug 2013. Indo Agri has tested the 0.800 psychological support level faster than expected. Low today is seen at 0.79. As mentioned previously, can consider holding CFD SHORT positions to ride any downside still unless it proves otherwise. Can probably see it go down to 0.74 to 0.76 region before consolidating again. As long as 0.800 stays as a new resistance level, still bearish in the near term.
Buy Stop lower now at 0.815

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

******* Possible Short term BUY signal: Midas. Share price 0.51.

Midas has been consolidating below the 0.505 resistance level for about 2 weeks only to see it break above today on pretty high volume. Currently at TOP 20 Volume. Next resistance at 0.52 level which is also the high today and where there are a lot of sellers stacked there. From the chart, we can see that it has indeed broken above the channel resistance level (Downward sloping line beginning in Jan 2013) at 0.48 about 2 weeks ago and has managed to stay above it. As long as 0.500 is a support, a rise towards 0.52 and even 0.55 seems likely. A break above 0.52 would pave the way to 0.55 which was the high set in Mar 2013.
Stop loss at 0.485.
DBSV – 12 AUG 2013
OCBC – 9 JULY 2013
Midas Holdings: Seeking more contract wins
Midas Holdings (Midas) recently clinched a CNY44.3m metro contract, thus bringing total YTD order wins to ~CNY423.2m. Looking ahead, Midas will continue to strive for potential new metro and international railway contract wins of ~CNY380-580m for the rest of 2013. We are buoyed by the positive news flow happening in China’s metro industry, and see Midas as a key beneficiary given its track record as a supplier to major Chinese train manufacturers. However, the time frame for new high-speed railway train car tenders by the China Railway Corporation remains uncertain, although there is optimism that it could be resumed in 3Q13. Maintain our BUY rating and S$0.54 fair value estimate on Midas, pegged to 1.1x FY13F P/B.

Monday, August 12, 2013

****** Trading SELL: Indo Agri. Share price 0.845. (CFD SELL TRADE)

Following up from SELL CALL made last week 6 Aug 2013. Indo Agri has broken down immediate support at 0.85 level today after consolidating above it for about a week. Seems likely to head lower to test the 0.800 real soon. If it does not stay above 0.85 in the coming days, more weakness can be possible. Can consider holding CFD SHORT positions to ride any downside. A break below 0.800 can see it go down further to where it was in the trough set in early 2009. Low after financial crisis was below 0.400 fyi. Still no end to downside in sight unless it breaks up above 0.900 first.
Buy Stop at 0.875

******** Take profit on SELL POSITIONS: Biosensors. Share price 0.87. (CFD SELL TRADE ON any slight rebound)

Following up from previous SELL CALL made on June 13, 2013. Biosensors has indeed traded lower and is currently at the 0.87 level. It has broken the critical 1.00 support level last Wednesday and has sold down even more today below 0.900. Likely support to be at 0.85 for now. Possible to stay above this support and consolidate in the coming days before finding new direction. Those holding SHORT positions can consider covering back some positions. As long as 0.900 stays as new resistance level, we are bearish still with downside to 0.80 possible if the 0.85 breaks down again.  Aggressive traders can consider holding more SHORT positions on any technical rebound to profit from more downside.
Buy stop at 0.915.
OCBC – 12 Aug 2013
Biosensors International Group: A quarter to forget
Summary: Biosensors International Group (BIG) reported 1QFY14 earnings which were significantly below ours and the street’s expectations. Core PATMI plunged 57.3% YoY to US$12.1m on the back of a 11.2% decline in revenue to US$76.7m, forming 10.1% and 20.0% of our original FY14 forecasts, respectively. This was due to another lacklustre quarter of contribution from licensing and royalties revenue and an inventory drawdown in its distributor sales channels in China in anticipation of new stent tenders. Our revised FY14 revenue forecast implies a 10.4% growth and comes in below management’s ~15% growth guidance. We also see mounting cost pressures for BIG and slash our FY14 and FY15 core PATMI projections by 34.4% and 29.9%, respectively. Our FCFE-derived fair value estimate falls from S$1.60 to S$0.96. We expect some near-term selling pressure on the stock and downgrade BIG from Buy to HOLD.
DB – 7 Aug 2013

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

****** Opportunity to Accumulate on Dips: Kep Corp. Share price 10.30 (Back to near 10.25 support again)

Kep Corp has traded downwards over the past 2 weeks after a hitting a high of 10.92 about 2 weeks ago. Now it is back to where it was supported in June 2013 above the 10.25 level. Will be a good blue chip to accumulate at a discounted price below the 10.30 level and to wait for any potential reversal rebound back up. As long as 10.25 is a support level, a rise towards 10.65 and even 10.90 seems likely. A breakdown below 10.25 can see it test the 10.00 psychological level. From the chart, you can see that it is also supported above the channel support line (Upward sloping line) which has guided the uptrend since end 2011.
Citibank: Keppel (KPLM.SI) -  2nd Aug 2013
Superior Margins Can Be Sustained Longer Than You Think
n Benefitting from Jack up ASP trend — The noticeable divergence between jack up and drillship prices should favour Keppel relatively better. Average prices for newbuild jackups in 2013 are comparable, or just slightly under average price of 2007/08 peak.
This suggests 2014-15 margins have minimal downside risks compared to current levels since majority of 2014-15 revenue will emerge from contracts secured at higher levels ((US$205-210mn, >10% above trough levels of US$180mn).
n Can re-rating catalysts emerge? — Penetrating into new products like drillship can be a strong re-rating catalyst, in our view. Keppel has re-designed its drillship specifications and is confident it is a compelling alternative to current ones in the market. Feedback from operators has been positive and raised expectations Keppel is able to overcome earlier challenges to succeed. We see other big ticket wins like semisubs and accommodation semis as catalysts for the stock.
n Could Pemex rival Petrobras potential in the long term? — Keppel has cultivated a close relationship with Pemex and will be the strongest beneficiary of Pemex E&P capex cycle, in our view. In the longer term, the possibility of Pemex having the potential to rival Petrobras cannot be ruled out; wins attributable to Pemex amounted to S$1.8bn over the past 12 months and expected to grow further. Should Pemex decide to introduce local content requirement (similar as Petrobras), we believe Keppel will be better positioned relative to competition.
n Growing Brazil exposure, not a weak link — With a record 6 semis to deliver in Brazil, there are concerns as to whether Keppel would be vulnerable to rising costs/labour issues. We are upbeat and believe high single digit operating margins can be achieved. Keppel has paid its tuition fees, and experienced losses previously when starting its operations since Yr 2000. Petrobras contracts have also turned more favourable vs 2004-08 with cost escalation clauses negotiated in contracts which should lower execution risks.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

******* Trading Sell: Indo Agri. Share price 0.86. (Down trend still in placed, no end in sight as of now)

Following up from previous SELL call on 11 June 2013. Indo Agri has continued to show weakness and has headed down more pulling further away from the 1.00 resistance level. Current support level is at 0.85.  Range will probably be from 0.85 to 0.88 level before any further breakdown. As long as 0.900 is a resistance, we are bearish. In this case, a downside breakdown of 0.85 will trigger a bearish acceleration towards 0.80.
Buy stop at 0.91 for CFD sell trades

******* CFD Trading SELL: TigerAir. Share price 0.585. (Broke down critical 0.600 support) - CFD SELL TRADE

TigerAir is currently at an all time low at 0.585 level. It has broken down the CRITICAL 0.600 SUPPORT level that it has tested in Dec 2011. Was hovering above it dangerously for the past month but failed to stay above it with a convincing breakdown yesterday with a low of 0.58 reached. More downside can be possible to 0.55 level before we see any temp technical rebound. As long as 0.600 is not broken back up, we favour a down move with 0.55 and 0.50 as the next targets.
BUY stop at 0.615 for CFD Sell trades.

Monday, August 5, 2013

****** Potential downside likely: Semb Marine. Share price 4.38. (Reversal back down) - (CFD SELL TRADE)

Following up from previous SELL call made last Tuesday, 30th July 2013. Semb Marine has broken the immediate support at 4.45 and closed lower last Friday at 4.43.Today we have seen it test the 4.40 and dipped below this psychological level. At current levels, you can see that it has clearly broken below the 20 DAY MA (Green line) which it has stayed above for more than a month. Downside possible to around the 4.20 level if the 4.45 remains as new resistance level. Traders who would like to accumulate on dips can consider buying near support from 4.20 level or below if it does dip to that level as mentioned in previous call.