Nam Cheong: 1st Target hit, likely to see some profit taking, price 0.069

From email sent, we have indeed seen a trade up for Nam Cheong to our first target at 0.070 today…..

Seeing some selling pressure right at this zone for now…..

Question is: Can we still more upside from here?

Yes, BUT that is ONLY IF we see something specific….

Some support seen at 0.065 for now…..  :)  WATCHING STILL

Congrats to those who managed to lock in some yesterday….. Protect if necessary.

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Recent Email:

Sent: Wednesday, October 5, 2016 10:05 AM
Subject: ********** Nam Cheong: More upside likely above 0.060... price 0.062, finally some actions....

Nam Cheong has been consolidating below the 0.055 key resistance for more than 2 months, and finally, we have seen some actions yesterday. Today, a further push above above the 0.060 can see more momentum coming back with the MACD also crossing above the zero mark for the first time after 2 months. Target can be to 0.070 then 0.080 for the short term as long as 0.060 holds now.

Nam Cheong: Down by 38.8% since April with a CFD SELL call..... is it cheap?

Have sent another email on Nam Cheong last week after the Swiber saga when it was at 0.073….

And indeed a further breakdown below the 0.070 support on Friday and more selling today with a new low again…

Now at 0.059…

The first CFD SELL call was issued on 5th April morning actually at a price of 0.098 (See below email)….

That was when the key 0.100 psychological support broke down….

I remembered some of my clients asking me then if they could buy because it was so cheap already....

This is clearly a case of “Cheap can become Cheaper”….. there is always a reason for being cheap in the market I guess,

And we never like to buy cheap things, we love to SHORT cheap things instead….

Since then, it has traded down by another 38.8%.....

Is it still cheap now for you ???

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Recent Emails:

Sent: Thursday, July 28, 2016 10:19 AM
Subject: *********** Nam Cheong: Heading towards a new low at 0.070 support next... price 0.073

Nam Cheong has traded lower over the past few days with it breaking below the 0.075 support again. Likely to test the 0.070 support next with the downtrend firming up again. Longer term moving averages are still pointing lower and no reversal in sight yet as long as 0.080 is a resistance now. A further breakdown below 0.070 can see more selling towards 0.060 then 0.050 where one can ride more CFD SELL positions…. Cautious long…  downtrend intact below 0.075

Sent: Monday, April 25, 2016 10:28 AM
Subject: **************** Nam Cheong: Still below the 0.100 resistance ,downtrend intact, may test 0.090 support next, cautious on further breakdown., price 0.095

Sent: Tuesday, April 05, 2016 9:30 AM
Subject: **************** Nam Cheong: Breakdown below 0.100 can see more weakness, price 0.098

Nam Cheong: A SERIES of calls.... Heading towards 0.120? Now at 0.112!!!

Even the 0.110 resistance cleared today on strong volume….

Sent: Monday, March 07, 2016 9:25 AM
Subject: ************* Nam Cheong: Still supported above 0.100 in wait of a strong move, let's see, alerts set.... price 0.105

Nam Cheong has seen more than 3 time above average volume today again as it approached the resistance at 0.108 – 0.110. This was the recent high form last week as it underwent some profit taking but the support at 0.100 seems to be holding well for now. Any further move above 0.110 can pave the way to a new high and confirming an end to the consolidation phase since Jan, with short term target at 0.116 then 0.120. Alerts set.

Sent: Wednesday, March 02, 2016 9:33 AM
Subject: ************** Nam Cheong: Potential Breakout above 0.105.... price 0.103

Nam Cheong has been consolidation  below the 0.105 resistance level for more than a month already and today we have seen some heavy volume again as it approached the 0.150 KEY RESISTANCE level. Any firm breakout above the 0.105 can put an end to the consolidation with short term target to 0.110 then 0.115 first. Indicators are looking at a slight reversal but more price action confirmation required. Alerts set J. Stop loss at 0.102 on a firm breakout.

Nam Cheong: Call issued this MORNING at 11.12am.... pushing higher still.... price 0.134

Heading towards 0.138 – 0.140?

Sent: Tuesday, December 22, 2015 11:12 AM
Subject: *********** Nam Cheong: Breakout above 0.125 can see some rebound... price 0.128

Nam Cheong has cleared above the 0.125 resistance level which it has traded below for more than a week. Looks set to attempt a breakout above the 0.130 further where we can see it trade to 0.138. Stochastic has cross above the reference level positively which can see more momentum too.. Short term bullish above 0.125 support now.

Nam Cheong: Explosive breakout caught on Wednesday, price 0.184 now

Did you managed to get in on TIME? More upside still? 

Be a client to find out, click here  ;)

Sent: Wednesday, September 23, 2015 9:15 AM
Subject: *********** Nam Cheong: Breakout Spotted above 0.160 convincingly.... price 0.165

Nam Cheong has traded below the 0.160 psychological resistance level for about a month and today we have seen some actions live as it attempts a breakout above the 0.160 level. Staying above now can see more strength as it trades higher to find a new consolidation phase. 20 day MA LINE reversing with prices maintaining above it for the past few days a positive. MACD showing a bullish crossover and heading towards the zero mark soon. RSI AND Stochastic both turning upwards too. Target to 0.170 then 0.180 first. Huge gap to cover with the recent losses. Stop loss at 0.157 for now.

************** Potential Breakout: Nam Cheong - 0.335 to 0.34 resistance key fo a rebound back up, price 0.335 (NOW 0.35)

Seems like a breakout, follow up from call this MORNING TO clients  J

************** Nam Cheong: Bearish Head and Shoulder spotted, SELL calls to clients previously !!!!

A temp rebound? Were you notified to be careful on the downside?

Sent: Tuesday, October 28, 2014 11:10 AM
Subject: ******************* Nam Cheong: Back to below 0.400 support again, price 0.39...... May head lower to test 0.36

After the slight rebound as per out previous call, Nam Cheong did rebound to a high of 0.43 but has again traded lower below 0.400 psychological support on market weakness and with the rest of oil and gas counters. May head back to 0.36 support level so CFD sell can be used to ride the FEW CENTs downside too. Those looking to accumulate on dips again can do so near 0.35-0.36 level as long as the support holds with stop loss at 0.34. Stochastic and RSI indicator looks like revering back downwards again on current price action.

Follow UP ********************** Nam Cheong: Potential rebound back up to 0.500 above 0.400 now... price 0.405 (NOW 0.42)

Clients were NOTIFIED LIVE yesterday morning at 9.22am !!! Were you informed?

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Follow UP ********************** Nam Cheong: Potential Breakout above 0.48...... Uptrend intact.... continue to ride.... price 0.475 (REPOST - NOW 0.495)

Can it break above the CRITICAL 0.500 resistance level now ? Clients were alerted to a POTENTIAL BREAKOUT last week.....

Follow UP ********************** Nam Cheong: further breakout expected...... More upside to 0.500 on clearing of 0.46 sellers( Breakout seen)

Follow up call to Nam Cheong Sent to Clients by SMS and then EMAIL earlier on LIVE BREAKOUT !!!!  Now at 0.475. Can it touched our target at 0.50 ? Buy UPS SEEN ALMOST immediately thereafter….

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Follow UP ********************** Nam Cheong: Bullish break above 0.400 expected - SMS TO CLIENTS "LIVE"on breakout ! ....... (Now 0.42)

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REPOST ********************** Nam Cheong: Bullish break above 0.400 expected....... Be prepared !! price 0.39 (Now 0.405)

Nam Cheong has broke the 0.400 psychological resistance today ON TOP 20 VOLUME AS mentioned to clients last week. More upside if it can stay above now J

********************* Nam Cheong: Slow and steady........ continue to ride the uptrend, Raise stop loss higher now ! Now at 0.375.

Following up from Previous BUY CALL: http://singaporetradinginsights.blogspot.sg/2014/04/repost-now-at-0355-nam-cheong.html

Nam Cheong has recently cleared above 0.37 resistance as mentioned earlier and went to a high of 0.39….. Poised to test the psychological 0.400 soon and a break above 0.400 will see it trade higher on a new upward phase again. Raise stop loss to 0.34 now. Can consider accumulating above support at 0.35 now for in wait for a breakout. Would have to hold to ride any upside along the way while raising stop loss.

REPOST ( NOW AT 0.355 ) ******** Nam Cheong: Consolidating in uptrend channel...... (BUY to hold) - 0.325 (REPOST ( NOW AT 0.355 ))

Following up from previous call, Nam Cheong has tested the 0.35 level today and cleared it on TOP 5 VOLUME, more upside certain if the 0.36 sellers get lifted too….

http://singaporetradinginsights.blogspot.sg/2014/03/nam-cheong-consolidating-in-uptrend.html

 

Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2014 9:57 AM
Subject: *********** Nam Cheong: Consolidating in uptrend channel...... (BUY to hold) - 0.325

Nam Cheong has been consolidating below the 0.35 KEY RESISTANCE level for about 3 months already. Still trading above uptrend channel support like which held since beginning 2012. Opportunity to accumulate on dips above channel support to wait for a potential breakout above the 0.35 resistance. A matter of time only before a bullish breakout, don miss it then. Not for contra, might have to hold to wait out the consolidation !

Stop loss at 0.275

 

*********** Nam Cheong: Consolidating in uptrend channel...... (BUY to hold) - 0.325

Nam Cheong has been consolidating below the 0.35 KEY RESISTANCE level for about 3 months already. Still trading above uptrend channel support like which held since beginning 2012. Opportunity to accumulate on dips above channel support to wait for a potential breakout above the 0.35 resistance. A matter of time only before a bullish breakout, don miss it then. Not for contra, might have to hold to wait out the consolidation !

Stop loss at 0.275

 

*********** Potential breakout: Nam Cheong...... (UPTREND very much in place......)

Following up from previous call made on End Dec 2013. Nam Cheong has indeed staged an incredible breakout and traded to a high of 0.345 before retracing back. For the past 2 months, we have seen it trade within the 5 cents range from 0.300 to 0.35, supported strongly above 0.300. Seem like it is going to test the CRITICAL 0.35 resistance level again where Volume has been strong for the past few days in expectation on solid results. Those waiting for the breakout can accumulate some within this range and hold for the longer term outlook. Can average up at 0.355 and 0.36 for more upside.

Stop loss wide at 0.29

 

OCBC 27 FEB 2014 - Nam Cheong: Reaching for the sky
Summary: Nam Cheong Limited delivered a record set of results for FY13, with revenue and PATMI growing 43.5% and 50.6% to MYR1,257.5m and MYR205.6m, respectively. The latter exceeded our FY13 forecast by 9.8%. This was partly due to a one-off reversal of deferred tax, excluding which Nam Cheong’s FY13 profit before tax (PBT) of MYR199.2m (+43.8%) would have been 2.0% above our PBT forecast. Management guided that it is targeting to deliver 35 vessels worth a total of US$700m in FY15, ahead of our estimate for 32 vessel deliveries, and also higher than its FY14 target. We lift our target PER peg from 8.5x to 9.5x in recognition of Nam Cheong’s solid execution track record and robust industry outlook. Applying this to our FY14F EPS estimate which has also been raised by 4.9%, we derive a higher fair value estimate of S$0.42 (previously S$0.37) on Nam Cheong. Maintain BUY

 

Maybank KE 27 FEB 2014- Nam Cheong Ltd - On even keel (BUY, TP SGD0.41, NCL SP, Offshore & Marine)

4Q13 PATMI beat our and consensus expectations due mainly to tax reversal. DPS of SGD 1.0 cent proposed. 2015 shipbuilding programme to consist of 35 vessels worth USD700m, marginally above our forecast. Maintain BUY. Raise TP to SGD0.41, pegged to 9x FY14E P/E.

 

 

*********** Trading BUY: Nam Cheong. Share price 0.305. (More upside to new up phase if supported above 0.300)

Nam Cheong has been consolidating below the 0.300 for the whole year of 2013, only to break above it today on high volume and nearing 2014. As long as it stays above 0.300 now, it can be a new uptrend to a target of 0.32 to 0.35 in the short term. Note that it has been trading above the 200 DAY MA consistently since last year which signifies that the longer term trend is still pointing upwards. Upward sloping channel support line still intact as seen and support well. Possible to hold to ride the next phase upward. TOP 10 VOLUME seen currently on this breakout which shows interest and upward momentum finally.

 

 

 

Maybank KE – 11 December 2013

#SG O&M:  Maybank-KE maintains its Overweight outlook on the Offshore & Marine sector for 2014, with the house expecting offshore oil and gas activities to gain momentum as the industry gravitates towards the development phase.
Led by national oil companies with national agendas for energy security, spending is more secular than cyclical, and as spending percolates through the value chain, offshore construction, installation and subsea activities will pick up and in turn benefit the offshore shipyards and oilfield services players.
The house opines that the rig building industry is in the midst of a multiyear up-cycle, with strong demand for shallow-water jackups already evident, and US drillers such as Transocean have started to upgrade their fleet.
According to Wood Mackenzie, at least 95 additional deep-water floaters are needed from 2016 to 2022 to exploit discoveries in deep-water. As such, the house project a return in deep-water floater orders (particularly semi-subs) from 2014 as (1) utilisation rates have breached 90%, (2) day rates are rising, and (3) only four semi-subs are to be delivered beyond 2016
 The robust rig building activities underline the house view that the OSV market is poised for a cyclical rebound, as more rigs entering the water would fuel demand for support services.
Overall, the house top Buys in the sector are Sembcorp Marine, Nam Cheong, Ezion and Vard. Top Sells include CoscoCorp and Yangzijiang.

 

********** Potential Breakout Play: Nam Cheong. Share price 0.29. ( When will it break above the KEY 0.300 resistance ? )

Following up from call made on 30^th September 2013. Nam Cheong has still not been able to break above the Critical 0.300 resistance level. This would surely be a KEY level to watch. Those who have the holding power can consider holding some long positions in wait for the breakout. Mainly a buy on Breakout play if the 0.300 till 0.31 clears out completely. A break above 0.300 can result in a NEW UP PHASE again and target would be 0.34 to 0.36 in the near term. Can consider averaging up on the breakout from 0.305 to 0.31. Note that since April 2012, it has also been consistently trading above the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line) which can also signal that the uptrend in the longer term is still very much intact. Critical resistance is seen crucially at 0.300 currently where there are huge Sellers stacks. After 0.300, sellers are min. It may continue to consolidate for no idea how long below the 0.300, so this is mainly a Buy on Breakout play if the 0.300 critically clears out.

Stop loss at 0.28 for Long Positions on breakout.

 

Maybank KE – 23^RD Oct 2013

Nam Cheong: Risk Taker Sees Rewards; Initiate BUY, TP $0.37

Ø  Initiate BUY and TP of SGD0.37, pegged to 9x PER on average FY13-15F EPS. We see Nam Cheong benefiting from (1) a recovering Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) market, (2) OSV replacement cycle, (3) Petronas’ Oil & Gas capex and (4) its foresight in reading the supply-demand dynamics of the sector.

Ø  Nam Cheong has demonstrated a strong ability to read market demand with a track record of selling all build-to-stock vessels before delivery. 2014 shipbuilding program is a big ramp-up over 2013 and it has already sold 57% of the 2014 vessels. Outstanding orderbook stands at MYR1.7b. We expect the company to deliver 16% EPS CAGR over FY13-15F as vessels in its ramped-up newbuild programs are readily absorbed by the market.

Ø  At current share price, stock is trading at only 6.1x/6.6x FY14F/15F PERs, inexpensive considering the robust growth prospects, higher ROEs and shipbuilding margins. We also see possibility of higher dividend payout in FY14F translating into a yield of about 5%.

 

 

******** Monitor Closely For Breakout: Nam Cheong. Share price 0.28. ( Mainly a BUY play if the breakout of 0.300 does occur , who knows when ?)

Nam Cheong has been consolidating from 0.24 to 0.300 since the start of this year on Jan 2013 which will be about 9 months already.  It has also been trading above its Channel support line (Upward sloping line) which shows that the general uptrend is still in placed so far. Note that since April 2012, it has also been consistently trading above the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line) which can also signal that the uptrend in the longer term is still very much intact. Critical resistance is seen crucially at 0.300 currently where there are huge Sellers stacks. After 0.300, sellers are min. It may continue to consolidate for no idea how long below the 0.300, so this is mainly a Buy on Breakout play if the 0.300 critically clears out. A break above 0.300 can result in a NEW UP PHASE again and target would be 0.34 to 0.36 in the near term. Can consider averaging up on the breakout from 0.305 to 0.31.

Stop loss at 0.28 for Long Positions on breakout.

 

 

 

UOBKH – 21 JUNE 2013

Nam Cheong (NCL SP/BUY/Target: S$0.34). Recently, Nam Cheong

announced the sale of four 3,000dwt PSVs and one 12,000bhp AHTS for

US$110m, easing concerns of a potential PSV oversupply. Following the

most recent sale, Nam Cheong's orderbook has hit an all-time high of

RM1.7b. Net orderbook stands at RM1.3b, of which about RM600m will be

recognised in 2013 and the remainder in 2014-15. Maintain BUY and

target price of S$0.34, based on 9.7x 2014F PE.

 

OCBC - 4^TH JUNE 2013

Nam Cheong: Ride the upcycle!

● Leadership transition

● Dominant in Malaysian market

● Rising OSV demand

New CEO; but expect a smooth

transition

Nam Cheong Limited recently announced that

its Executive Director, Mr. Leong Seng Keat,

has been re-designated as the CEO. Datuk

Tiong Su Kouk, who is also a controlling

shareholder with a 43% stake, will relinquish

his CEO position but he remains as the

Executive Chairman. We believe that this

leadership transition would be smooth and do

not expect any significant changes to the

group's business directions. Mr. Leong, also

the son-in-law of Datuk Tiong, joined Nam

Cheong in 2005 after 15 years in the IT

industry. With his sales and management

experience, Mr. Leong successfully marketed

the group's vessels to the international

market.

Strong market leadership

We continue to like Nam Cheong for its

market leadership in Malaysia. Having fine tuned

its outsourcing strategy over the

years, the group now dominates the OSV

market with about 70% domestic market

share. Although majority of its vessels are

built in third-party Chinese yards, the group

has supervising teams on the ground to

ensure that the vessels are of sound quality.

This outsourcing strategy allows Nam Cheong

to scale up its production capability quickly

without having to incur hefty capital

expenditures.

 

Pick-up in OSV demand expected

Petronas had pledged to spend RM300b in

capital expenditure over 2011-15, 80% more

than the previous 5-year period. We believe

this will likely result in increased investments

across the Malaysian offshore oil & gas

industry. Already, Nam Cheong is seeing a

healthy pick-up in order wins (FY11: 13

vessels; FY12: 21 vessels) and it has recently

expanded its shipbuilding programme to 28

vessels for FY14F (FY13: 19 vessels). Its

large order-book of MYR1.3b, for 26 vessels

delivered over FY13-15F, helps to mitigate its

risk by providing a base level of earnings.

Given the strong growth profile, we find

current valuation (FY13F PER of 8.6x)

attractive. We now raise our FV to S$0.35

(previously S$0.30) on a higher PER of 11x.

Maintain BUY.