Friday, June 28, 2013

***** Staging a strong Rebound: Super Group. Share price 4.42. (More upside likely)

Super Group has broken above its 2 weeks consolidation phase yesterday above 4.30 level. At current levels, it is also trading above the 20 DAY short term MA. Immediate support at 4.30 level. As long as 4.30 holds, more upside possible to 4.60, 4.80 then 5.00. Good to consider holding for the longer term as it has traded above the 200 DAY MA since last year Feb 2012 which signal then uptrend still intact for the longer term. A break above 5.00 can see it head higher to seek new consolidation phase.
Stop loss at 4.27 for short term traders
CIMB: Super Group  - 13TH May 2013
Stronger than it looks
OUTPERFORM - Upgrade | S$4.85 - Tgt. S$5.22
Mkt.Cap: US$2185m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.02m | Free Float: 26.80%

1Q started well and could have been stronger. Ingredients successful penetration into S.E.A. means that this segment is now a proxy for developing markets' consumption in addition to its branded consumer segment. This makes the business more valuable today. 1Q13 core EPS was in line and forms 24% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We raise FY13-14 estimates by 16% as we were previously too negative on raw material prices. We raise our target price, with a higher multiple of 24x CY14 P/E (previously 20x) as: 1) Nestle Malaysia has re-rated and we lower our discount from 20% to 10%. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral with catalysts to come from stronger earnings growth in 2H.
Good 1Q despite riots in Myanmar
1Q's 25% earnings increase yoy was driven by: 1) rising gross margins and 2) forex gains from appreciating US$. This increase came in spite of muted branded consumer sales which could have been higher if not for the race riots in Myanmar (~ 20% of sales). Wholesalers are likely to re-stock once the situation subsides. This suggests that there could be 'deferred' revenue in 2H. Gross margins are sustainable as raw material prices continue to stay low and could remain that way. Robusta prices have declined after rising slightly this year while palm oil and sugar continue to decrease.  
Ingredients - a developing market proxy
Ingredients' successful penetration into Indonesia and Thailand is a big positive. Sales into S.E.A. now form 49% of ingredients' revenue; it was 33% a year ago when we initiated coverage. Such a demographic makes the business more valuable.  
Upgrade to Outperform
We are upgrading on: 1) higher estimates as our previous low estimates were guided by lower raw material prices and 2) higher multiple for the overall business as ingredients segment is increasingly skewed towards S.E.A. which makes it a developing market proxy in addition to the branded consumer segment.  

Maybank KE -  14th May 2013
Super Group - Fresh coffee, fresh perspective (Buy, $4.85 - TP $6.30, SUPER SP, Consumer)
-    Reiterate BUY. With resilient earnings and a free cash flow which will grow exponentially from next year, we think it is now appropriate to value the stock on a DCF basis, which yields a fresh Street-high TP of SGD6.30, implying 30% upside from here.
-    1Q13 results were within expectations. Recurring net profit growth of 30% yoy were driven by higher revenue and better margins.
-    While we expect margins to moderate over the next few quarters, we still expect strength due to higher-value products coming on stream and economies of scale.

***** On a Recovery Phase: SIA Engg. Share price 5.05.

SIA Engg has been recovering slowly after hitting a low of about 4.90 last week on market sell down. Has just broken above the 20 DAY MA line 4 days ago and still staying above it consistently and forming higher highs each day. Immediate resistance to watch would be 5.10 critically, a break above 5.10 can see it go higher to 5.30 which was the high in May last month before markets sold down. A good stock to accumulate on dips to ride any potential rebound.
Stop loss below 4.95.
Maybank KE – 27TH June 2013
Singapore Transportation Update: What If The Haze Returns?
Ø  The haze impact will not last long. We stay positive on SIAEC (BUY, TP: SGD6.16), SATS (BUY, TP: SGD3.90) and ComfortDelGro (BUY, TP: SGD2.33) and believe that any negative reaction presents opportunities to accumulate undervalued transportation sector stocks that we favour.
Ø  SIA, SIAEC & SMRT most exposed. We estimate that SMRT and ComfortDelGro would suffer a weekly earnings impact of SGD2m and SGD1.4m or 2.0% and 0.5% of annual profit respectively for every 15% reduction in fare revenue. SIA and SIAEC would be exposed as Singapore is their main operating base, but it is not possible to assess the earnings impact on aviation stocks as there are too many moving parts. Inbound traffic could be hit, but this could be offset by more outbound traffic.
Ø  Historically, no impact on stocks as long as haze lasts less than a month. We observed no material adverse reaction during the worst of the haze in Sep 1997 and Oct 2006, which generally lasted about a month. As long as the haze does not last for more than a month this time round too, we remain sanguine on the situation. Using a far worse example to gauge downside, the SARS epidemic impacted the aviation stocks by almost 20% at the worst, but land transport stocks were unscathed. 

Thursday, June 27, 2013

***** Break out of consolidation phase: OKH Global. Share price 0.39.

OKH has been trading from the 0.35 to 0.38 range for about 3 weeks before breaking out above 0.38 today. As its trading history is not really long, not able to see much longer term trend. However, it is good to note that since the 20 DAY MA line (Green Line) formation about 3 weeks ago, it has been trending above it consistently even though markets were a rollercoaster on the downside. Short term upside still intact as long as immediate support at 0.35 holds then 0.34 which is just above the 20 DAY MA line. Currently at an all time high, next psychological resistance to watch is the 0.400 which it has also tested today but failed to break through. Can consider averaging up on this 0.400 breakout with a short term target to 0.45 first.
Stop loss for short term trades at 0.37
News flow: -7 May 2013-  Industrial property developer OKH Holdings begins life as a listed entity today under the name OKH Global, following a S$123.2m reverse takeover of China-based IT solution provider Sinobest Technology.
OKH Global: Award Of JTC Tender Of Land Parcel At Loyang Way For S$61.6 Million - 10 Jun 2013 17:14
OKH Global Ltd. wishes to announce that it has been awarded the tender by JTC Corporation for a 30-year land parcel located at Loyang Way, having an approximate site area of 20,633 square metres at a tender price of S$61,636,000.00...

***** Possible rebound: Singtel. Share price 3.69. (Winning Telecom license in Myanmar would be a key REBOUND CATALYST)

Singtel has broken out of recent consolidation phase which is below 3.65. A break above 3.70 can see it consolidate higher. Has just broken above the Short Term Moving Average (20 DAY MA) – Green line at current level which can signal more short term upside. Next target at 3.78 then 3.80. Can also accumulate on dips for longer term investment and yield. Recent high in May was above 4.00.
Stop loss below 3.50.
Myanmar Mobile License Bidding. Most Likely Winners and Runner-Ups
2013-06-26 16:15:11.616 GMT
SingTel and Digicel Consortiums are most likely winners. The
Myanmar authorities are expected to announce the winners of the
two prized mobile network licenses tomorrow (June 27). Eleven
shortlisted bidders, both solo companies and consortiums, from
SingTel of Singapore, KDDI of Japan to France Telecom-Orange of
France and Digicel of the Caribbean, have battled to gain an
access to Asia’s last major frontier market with over 60 million
people. Having analyzed many factors that would impact each
contender, we hereby provide our assessment with regard to the
most likely winners and runner-ups in the tender (please see the
full analysis on next page).
In our view, SingTel Consortium (SingTel, Kanbawza Bank, MTel)
and Digicel Consortium (Digicel, Quantum Strategic Partners, YSH
Finance) are the two most likely winners of the two licenses.
Extensive expertise in large markets with the highest number of
mobile customers, especially in low-income markets of Asia
Pacific, backing by Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek and
good government and business relations should make the SingTel-
led consortium a top choice. SingTel teaming up with Kanbawza
Bank (the country’s largest bank) bring in exceptionally strong
local partner, the criteria which would be an important
consideration in the selection process.
DB: Singtel - Thoughts on Myanmar (BUY) – 12 June 2013

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

***** Breaking out of consolidation phase possible: Blumont. Share price 1.175

Blumont has been consolidating for about 3 weeks from the 1.07 to 1.13 range. Finally broken out the 1.13 resistance today on higher than average volume. Testing 1.18 currently. Psychological resistance to watch will be the 1.20. If this level clears out, can be the start of new upward momentum to target about 1.30. Those looking for this break out of 1.20 can consider locking in some positions from 1.13 to 1.20 level. Note that it has been hovering above the 20 DA MA (Green line) consistently even during days when markets were sold off hugely which shows that short term uptrend still intact. Like to push up further on strong volume breakout of 1.20 critical psychological resistance level.
Stop loss at 1.09. 

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

***** Monitor Closely: Midas. Share price 0.445. ( Possible breakdown of support)

Midas has tested the 0.44 support just now and went below it briefly. Low today was 0.435. if the 0.44 support breaks down on strong volume and sellers throw down at 0.435, 0.43, short term downside can be possible to 0.400 level. A break below 0.40 level can see it go towards 0.35 level. Do nothing if it holds above 0.44 support, short only if it 0.44 breaks down. Note that it has just broken below the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line) yesterday which can also signal weakness and reversal in trend.
Buy stop for short positions on breakdown is 0.465.

**** Broke Temp Support: Yongnam. Share price 0.335. (Short term downside possible before rebound)

Yongnam has broken down immediate support level at 0.34 which was holding for more than 2 weeks. Can head lower to 0.32 then 0.300 level on further market weakness. Accumulate on dips near 0.30 to 0.32 for longer term investors who believe in the Myanmar growth story. Short term traders can consider riding the short term down tick USING CFD and cover near lower support levels.
DBSV – 17TH JUNE 2013
Go for high conviction growth and value stocks. As
macro recovery remains modest, pick stocks where
earnings growth is highly visible and sustainable:Ezion
(TP S$3.00)
will continue to outperform on secured
contracts and its unique market positioning; Tat Hong
(TP: S$1.80)
is positioned to benefit from the regional
infrastructure boom; Del Monte (TP: S$0.97) is a proxy
to Philippines, SEA’s 2nd largest consumer market.
Kreuz (TP: S$0.78)
is our top pick in the O&G services
sector for its proven execution track record while Midas
(TP: S$0.60)
is poised for earnings recovery backed by its
growing order book. For value, Vard (TP: S$1.46) is a
bargain at 6.3x FY14PE vs normalized 10x PE.

Situational plays.
Myanmar is a unique theme which
has been running independent of world economics for
some time now. We believe the Myanmar theme will
continue as reforms continue to attract FDIs. Results of
telecom license and Yangon Airport development
contracts are imminent events. Picks are Yoma (TP:
S$1.08) and
Yongnam (TP: S$0.41). 

***** Monitor closely: Capitaland. Share price 2.98 (Accumulate on dips or Short if support broken)

Following up from previous Sell call made on 11 June 2013.  Capitaland has traded downwards on a weaker market and on fears of interest rate hike in the near future. Property developers and banks which are interest rate sensitive as sold down by quite a fair bit. Current support at 2.95 then 2.80 level. 2.95 support level was holding very well since Aug last year. A breakdown of this support can see it head lower to test 2.80. Resistance currently at 3.00 then 3.10. As long as 3.10 remains as resistance, bearish in the short term still.  Those looking to enter can consider accumulating on dips near 2.80 support levels for rebound.
OCBC – 25TH JUNE 2013
CapitaLand Limited: Uncertainties creeping into
macro picture
We believe recent PMI and interbank liquidity datapoints
from China point to increasing macro uncertainties as
authorities attempt to engineer a more sustainable albeit
slower tempo of growth. This being so, we see heightened
downside risks for CAPL’s Chinese residential sales and
rental outlooks. In Singapore, increasing visibility of a QE
exit scenario have moved bond yields to recent highs and a
trend of rising mortgage rates would likely ensue from here,
in our view. Our judgment is that while rising rates alone
are unlikely to trigger dramatic residential price downside,
it would likely weigh on primary sales volumes ahead. We
lower our fair value estimate to S$3.77 but maintain a BUY
rating as we consider CAPL shares to be likely oversold at
this juncture at a 45% discount to RNAV. Note that 36% of
CAPL’s value is constituted by its stake in listed CapitaMalls
Asia (CMA) which has dipped only 8.2% YTD versus CAPL’s
whopping 19.5% correction. Moreover, we highlight that
CAPL continues to hold a strong balance sheet (S$5.4b
cash, 44% net gearing) which would buttress its businesses
through potential headwinds. 

***** Monitor closely: Noble Group. Share price 0.965. (Trading sell on break down of support)

Noble has tested the critical 0.95 support twice already. Went to above 1.00 last week when markets rebounded but has tanked down again on market weakness. A high beta stock that tracks market closely, to short if the market weakens further and 0.95 support does not hold. Will build Short position from 0.935 to 0.945 level if the support breaks down. Short term target to 0.900 if 0.95 breaks.
Buy Stop at 0.965. 

Monday, June 24, 2013

**** Consolidation phase: Golden Agri. Share Price: 0.55. (Trade the range)

Golden Agri has been trading from 0.52 to 0.60 since March 2013 after the 0.600 critical support was broken. Current support is at 0.52 which has been tested about 6 times since 3 months ago till now and holding. Possible to trade this 8 cents range for and accumulate on dips near 0.52 (probably from 0.52 to 0.535) support level. Short positions near 0.600 (probably from 0.575 to 0.600)can be considered too. As long as the 0.52 support and 0.60 resistance levels are not breached, it remains range bound.  We will average up and increase long positions at 0.61 if the 0.600 resistance level clears out.
Stop loss for long or short positions once technical levels are broken.
OCBC – 10 June 2013
Golden Agri-Resources: Modestly firmer CPO boost
Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), being one of the largest palm
oil plantation owners in the world, should benefit from the
recent rebound in CPO (crude palm oil) prices to
MYR2450/ton; we note that there is a strong historical
correlation of nearly 0.7 between CPO prices and GAR share
price. While the general outlook for commodities is still
uncertain (as China’s economic growth continues to sputter
along), we believe that headwinds appear to be dissipating.
Furthermore, management remains fairly upbeat about its
prospects as it continues to expand its integrated operation
capabilities to benefit from the firm industry outlook.
Maintain BUY with an unchanged S$0.63 fair value (based
on 12.5x FY13F EPS).

Friday, June 21, 2013

***** Medical play DUE TO HAZE: Healthway. Share price 0.086.

2nd TOP volume after Medtecs. Immediate resistance at 0.085 which was the high for the past week broken, next resistance at 0.088. If the 0.09 clears out, more upside possible to 0.100 level which it where it was trading at in early June. Probably a play on worsening Haze conditions as PSI increases further, medical supplies and services to be more in demand.
Stop loss 0.083. 

******* Trading BUY: Medtecs. Share price 0.098. (HEDGE AGAINST THE HAZE)

Speculative quick short term play. Take profit on any upside. Might continue to trade higher on worsening haze conditions. Target to 0.14, 0.16 thereabout if the 0.100 clears out.
Top volume currently. Stop loss at 0.096.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

******* Trading BUY: ISDN. Share price 1.405.

Follow up from previous call on Monday, 17th June 2013. ISDN has indeed traded higher. Has crossed above the critical 1.40 resistance level today. Currently at TOP Volume on breakout of 1.40. As long as 1.40 remains as new support level, we are bullish with a short term target of 1.50.  A break above 1.50 can see it trend higher in strength. Possible to accumulate near 1.40 support if it dips.
Stop loss at 1.385.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

****** Short term rebound possible: Interra Resources. Share price 0.48.

Interra Res has seen pretty high Top 20 volume today.  Immediate resistance is at 0.50 currently with 20 DAY MA (Green line) at 0.485. Has seen it crossed above this short term MA line briefly in the morning hitting a high of 0.49 as of now. Trading range is from 0.45 to 0.55 since March 2013. Possible to see it rebounding fast if the 0.500 clears out and can expect a short term target to 0.55. Those waiting for the breakout can consider locking in some positions at these levels and average up on break out of 0.50.
Stop loss at 0.44.
DBSV – 5TH June 2013
Largest onshore oil producer in
Myanmar –
Potential Target * : 12-Month S$ 0.57 (12%
Oil & gas proxy in Myanmar and Indonesia with
assets mainly in production phase
Significant production ramp up to drive nearterm
growth; potential further upside from
exploration assets and bids for new licences
Fair value implies 12% potential
Largest onshore oil producer in Myanmar with 40% market
share. Interra Resources (ITRR) is an oil & gas exploration and
production company with two producing fields in central
Myanmar and two producing fields and one exploration site in
Indonesia. The company currently has about 24.6m barrels of 2P
(proven + probable) reserves and its wells produced close to 1m
barrels of oil last year. Myanmar is the key earnings contributor
at 86% of FY12 EBITDA. ITRR has been in Myanmar since 1996.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

***** OCBC: Rebounding on market strength. Share price 10.24.

OCBC has traded below the 10.20 resistance level for more than a week before rebounding above it today. Recent high in May was 11.20 last month. Note that it has rebounded from the 200 day MA (Dotted blue line) 3 days ago which can signal that the longer term uptrend is very much intact. Next target will be to 10.40 then 10.55. Might consolidate in this 10.20 to 10.55 range before more upside. Another short term resistance to watch is the 10.50 level which also coincides with the 20 DAY MA (Green line). More short term upside too if it manages to break above 10.50. Can consider holding more long positions if the 10.55 clears out. A play on FED coming out to reassure markets that Stimulus Measure will be here to stay in the near future.
Stop loss at 10.16 for short term trades 

**** Yongnam: Staging a Rebound? Share price 0.365.

Yongnam has cleared its immediate resistance at 0.36 which it has stay below for about a week after the market sell down last week. Seems like it is making a comeback as buyers start to accumulate on dips. Possible to rebound back up to 0.38 level if the 0.36 holds as support. A break above 0.38 can see it go the 0.400 in the short term. Generally still supported above 20 DAY MA line (Green line) at 0.35 currently which signifies that short term upside still intact.  Immediate support at 0.34 then 0.300.
Stop loss below 0.34 for short term trades
DBSV – 10th June 2013
Ride on coattails of Myanmar’s reforms
  • Myanmar’s growth is fast and sustainable,
  • Abundant opportunities in consumer, tourism, infrastructure and O&G sectors,
  • Direct access is limited; invest through foreign companies already in or expanding into Myanmar
Reforms have been progressive. Despite skepticisms and multiple challenges, Myanmar’s sweeping reforms have resulted in further easing of sanctions on the country, which in turn is drawing new aids, more visitors and even higher interest to trade and invest in Myanmar. Foreign direct investments (FDIs) have reportedly jumped >40% to US$1.4bn in FY2013 while tourist arrivals have surged 54% to 1m. ADB projected that Myanmar GDP would expand >6% in 2013 and could grow 7-8% p.a. over the decade.
Singapore companies expanding in Myanmar are good gateways. Singapore companies are good proxies to ride on several segments in the country’s current stage of development.
Infrastructure:Infrastructure development and planning is rapidly underway. To fast track development, foreigners have been invited to bid for mobile networks, airports, and oil & gas exploration. We like Ezion (BUY, TP: S$3.00) andInterra Resources (NR, TP: S$0.57) as Oil & Gas proxies with operations there. Other potential beneficiaries include Yongnam (BUY, TP: S$0.41)in the development of airports, Tiong Seng (BUY, TP: S$0.33) to set up a pre-cast factory, and SingTel (HOLD, TP: S$3.80) in the bidding for a mobile phone license.

Monday, June 17, 2013

**** Range Trading: Wee Hur. Share price 0.415. (Consolidating sideways - Range trading opportunity)

Wee Hur has been trading sideways from 0.400 to 0.45 for about 3 months since Mar 2013. Immediate support remains at 0.400 which it has held since March 2013. Traders who would like to trade the range can consider longing near the 0.400 level or shorting near 0.45 level. No direction yet as long as it remains in this tight 5 cents range. A break out above 0.45 level can see it test 0.500 quickly and a breakdown of 0.400 support can see sellers taking it down further to 0.37 to 0.34 level. Those trading this range can consider averaging up long position on breakup of 0.45 resistance, or average down short position on breakdown of 0.400 support. 

**** Short Term trade: ISDN. Share price 1.31. (Short term Speculative play with tight stop loss)

ISDN has staged a strong rebound from a huge sell down on penny stocks last Monday. Currently has rebounded to above the 1.30 immediate resistance level which it has stayed below for about a week. Since the sell down last Monday, it has been closing higher on strength each day as buyer accumulate on dips. Support would remain at 1.30 level now, with the next resistance at 1.33 then 1.40. As long as 1.30 holds as new support, more short term upside possible to retrace previous high at 1.385. Top 10 volume seen currently. A break above 1.40 can see it test 1.50 critical resistance quickly.
Stop loss at 1.28

Friday, June 14, 2013

******* Stock to Watch: Skyone. Share price 0.425. (Inching its way up GRADUALLY - Not for Contra)

Follow up on Buy call made on 24th April. Skyone was then 0.400 and has since moved up a little bit more. Skyone has been inching up slowly with buyers accumulating on any dips. From the price movement, you can see an almost upward sloping line leading the uptick. Possible to accumulate and hold and ride the uptrend. Immediate support would remain at 0.400 for now. High in Feb was 0.47, looks see to test this level again. A break above 0.47 can see it go to 0.500 quickly. Will consider averaging up on the breakout of 0.500.
Stop loss 0.39. 

Thursday, June 13, 2013

******* Trading Sell: Biosensors. Share price 1.095. (CFD SELL trade only)

Following up from Sell call made on 29th May 2013. Biosensors has traded down on a weaker market. Support is at 1.10 which we have mentioned in earlier post 2 weeks ago. Currently this support level is being tested and has just been broken. Those who have profited by closing off previous short positions can consider holding more short positions. Next support to watch would be 1.07 which was holding strongly in Nov last year, then 1.05 then 1.00 critically.
New Trailing Buy stop at 1.115 now.

**** Trading Sell: China Minzhong. Share price 0.95. (CFD Sell trade ONLY)

China Minzhong has broke 0.965 immediate support level which it has held above since Jan this year. More Downside likely to 0.900 then 0.87 if the 0.95 clears out completely. As long as 0.96 remains as resistance, more short term down tick in placed. Note that there is a slight Head and Shoulder formation with a breakdown of neckline support at 0.965, this could signal more weakness in the near term also.
Buy Stop at 0.975. 

****** Trading Sell: Noble Grp. Share price 0.965 ( Still below 1.00 as mentioned yesterday - CFD SELL TRADE ONLY)

Follow up from Sell call made yesterday, 12th June 2013. Noble has indeed traded lower on a weaker market and tested the 0.96 immediate support level. Might consolidated from 0.96 to 1.00 before finding a new direction. If the 0.96 and 0.95 support breaks down again. Possible to accumulate more short positions. As long as resistance is firmly at 1.00, bearish trend is still intact.  Short term downside to 0.900 if 0.95 support clears out completely by BB.
Buy stop at 1.03 to close off any short positions.

**** Trading Sell: Ezra. Share price 0.94. (Broken down support)

Ezra has broken 0.95 support that it has been consolidating above since last month. Downside to test 0.900 likely.
Buy Stop 0.965 

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

*** Trading SELL: Noble Grp. Share price: 0.99. (CFD SELL TRADE)

Noble has broken CRITICAL 1.00 support 5 mins ago. More downside likely to 0.95 then 0.900. Short positions as long as 1.00 remains as resistance. Huge sell down at 1.00 – ABOUT 2000 lots consecutively by BB, 1.00 was holding for about a week before breaking down today. Short term trading sell. Might consolidate from 0.95 to 1.00 before we see a new direction.
Buy stop at 1.03. 

****** Nearing the Critical Support: NOL. Share price 1.07.

NOL has been trading above 1.00 since Aug 2011 till now and this support seem likely to hold. Current support at 1.05 which was holding since July last year. If this 1.05 does not hold, likely to test 1.00 quickly. Possible to accumulate Long position as it nears the 1.00 Critical support level to participate on any rebound on a stronger market. Those looking to profit for a 6 cents gain can also consider shorting down the stock for a break in 1.05 support and close position near 1.00. As long as 1.00 holds as the support, we are bullish for a rebound. However, if the 1.00 gets sold down and breaks down to 0.985, we turn bearish, will close off all long positions and hold short positions instead for it to trade lower.
Stop loss at 0.985 

***** Accumulate on Dips: SIA. Share price 10.28. (Not for contra, to accumulate on Dips for rebound)

SIA has been supported above the critical 10.00 level since Dec 2011 till now. This Support looks set to hold again. Would be good to consider accumulating near this support level probably from 10.00 to 10.20 for another rebound when the market recovers. Of course the lower the better, but no one knows how low near support it can go before rebounding so layer your accumulation trades. Not for contra trading as it might take a while to consolidate before rebounding like what we have seen in Jun and Nov last year. Take profit on rebound from 10.80 to 11.00.
Stop loss strictly as 9.96. In fact we will consider short positions if the 10.00 does not hold.

**** Trading Sell Call: ST Eng. Share price 3.78. (CFD Sell trade only)

ST Eng  broken the 3.80 support level yesterday and still did not manage to get back up above today. 3.80 support was holding very well in Dec last year and Jan this year till it trended higher. More downside is likely if 3.80 remains as the new resistance level. As long as ST Eng does not creep back up above within the next 2 days we are bearish with downside target set as 3.62, then 3.50.  At this price level is has also broken below the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line) which can signal more weakness.
Buy Stop at 3.83. 

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

*** CFD Short Sell: Cosco. Share price 0.76. (Downtrend still intact - CFD SELL TRADE)

Follow up from trading call made on 7th May 2013 when Cosco broke 0.800.  Cosco has been consolidating below 0.800 since 30th May 2013 after a convincing breakdown of support. Immediate support at 0.77 failed to hold today. Next critical support to watch is the 0.75 level. Can head lower if this 0.75 level does not hold. Target on the downside will be to 0.700.  Can consider accumulating more CFD short positions on the downtrend. Will ENTER MORE Short position on break of 0.75 support.
Stop loss at 0.805

****CFD Sell trade: Capitaland. Share price 3.25 (CFD Sell trade only)

Following up from Sell call made last Wednesday, 5th June. Capitaland has indeed broken the 3.40 critical support and seem to be trading lower each day on a weaker market. Current support at about 3.26 which it has just broken, then 3.20 and firmly at 3.10. Can considering shorting this counter on to participate in market weakness and property sector downside in the near term.
Stop loss 3.31

***** CFD Short Sell: Indo Agri. Share price 0.99. (CFD Sell trade)

Follow up from trading call made on 28TH May 2013, Indo agri has indeed broken this critical 1.00 support today on a weaker market. More downside likely on a further weakness in market. Short term target to 0.900. As long as 1.00 holds as resistance level. Bearish trend continues. Can consider to accumulate more short positions as it breaks each support each time.
Stop loss 1.015.

Monday, June 10, 2013

***** Consolidation Phase: Dukang. Share price 0.64. ( Impending breakout above 0.65)

Follow up from previous call made last Monday 3rd June. Dukang is likely to consolidate from 0.600 to 0.65 for a while before breaking above. Support remains at 0.600 firmly which was previously a resistance level. Possible to accumulate on dips near 0.600 level to catch the breakout of 0.65. Upside is still intact above 0.600. Upon breaking out at 0.65, aggressive traders can consider averaging up at 0.655 to 0.66 and have a short term target to 0.700. High as of now 12.52pm is at 0.65 level which it again tested today but not much buyers.
To raise trailing stop loss level to 0.585.

*** Trading Buy: Yoma. Averaging up. Share price 1.025.

Following up from previous call made last Friday, 7th June. Yoma has indeed managed to breakout and stay above 1.00 critically. More upside possible to 1.10 in strong momentum. As long as 1.00 holds as the new support level, uptrend is still intact. Currently in Top 10 volume and it has also tested and broke above last week high of 1.02 in strong buy ups.
Stop loss at 0.985. 

Friday, June 7, 2013

*****Potential Breakout Opportunity: Wee Hur. Share price 0.43.

Wee hur has been consolidating from 0.40 to 0.45 from March till now. Currently still below the 0.45 critical resistance level. Slightly higher volume seen today as it tested a high of only 0.445 before dipping again. Those waiting for this impending breakout can consider locking in some positions between 0.40 to 0.45 level. As long as 0.400 holds as immediate support, it will still consolidate within the range. A breakout above 0.45 can see it go to 0.500 quickly, then 0.57 which was the high set in Feb 2013. Can consider averaging up at 0.46 level if whole stack of sellers get taken out at 0.455. Good LUCK !
Stop loss at 0.385 nevertheless. 

****** Monitor closely: YOMA. Share price 0.995 (Potential break out OF CRITICAL 1.00)

Follow up from previous call made on 5th June, Wednesday. Yoma looks set to test the CRITICAL 1.00 resistance level. If this level clears out and also the 1.005 level, possible to see upside to 1.10 and new consolidation phase upwards. Watch the break out. We will average up more long positions on this breakout. 

***** Uptrend Momentum still intact: ISDN. Share price 1.33. (Potential multibagger looking at it's rise)

ISDN has broke out from 1.30 resistance level today on strong volume. Has been forming new high ever since clearing the critical 1.00 level last month. Possible to accumulate on any dips to ride on further uptrend. For near term upside, as long as 1.30 holds as new support, uptick momentum still in place. Target to 1.40 first then 1.50.
Stop loss at 1.28

Thursday, June 6, 2013

*** Broken KEY resistance Yesterday: JiutianC. Share price 0.116. (Could this be another Dukang or Halcyon?)

JiutianC currently in TOP 10 Volume has staged a  breakout of the 0.11 level yesterday. Still managing to stay above this new support level today and even hitting a high of 0.123 today.  Possible to see it trend higher as long as this 0.110 remains as new resistance turned support. It might consolidate a while before break 0.120 and finding a new high. A more speculative play so be cautious and discipline if you have positions locked in. A break above 0.125 can see it test 0.130 quickly.
Strict Stop loss at 0.107. 

******** STI Direction - Lets have a look at when is a Good Entry level again for the overall Market. STI NOW 3195.

STI has tested the 3230 support level yesterday which it has held above since Jan this year. After 3230, support would be 3190 to 3200 which is where the 200 DAY MA (Dotted Blue Line) is hovering at. If this support does not hold as well, can see next support at 3160 which was the support consolidation phase in Dec last year. 3100 would be the next CRITICAL support which was actually the resistance STI broke above that resulted in the bullish run we have seen in the early part of the year. Can consider accumulating some Good blue chips on Dips when STI does trade within the 3100 to 3160 range. 3100 must hold or we can see further weakness in the market. Sti is mainly dragged down by blup chips banks and property counters which are more interest rate sensitve and are more affected wherever there are any signs of the FED’S stimulus measures scaling back. OPEN A FREE TRADING ACCOUNT NOW.

**** Accumulate on Dips: Ezion. Share price 2.31. ( Be prepared for the rebound, use this opportunity to accumulate at a discount)

Ezion has seen a slight pull back on a weak overall market. Support currently at 2.20 then 2.23. As long as this immediate support level holds, can consider accumulating on dips for a rebound back up. Resistance stands at 2.40 which it broke above last month but failed to maintain above. More upside to be seen to 2.50 if the 2.44 clears.
Stop loss at 2.18
DBSV – 6TH June 2013
Ezion: BUY; S$2.25; EZI SP
Sky's the limit

Price Target : 12-Month S$ 3.00 (Prev S$ 2.52)

by: HO Pei Hwa

•        Raising FY14/15F earnings by 3/15% after imputing an additional 4/8 vessels to fleet
•        Poised to ride on the rising demand for liftboat/service rigs in Asia and robust activities in GOM
•        High earnings visibility with impressive EPS CAGR of 56% in FY12-15F
•        Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$3.00
Ample room for growth.  
We revisited our earnings model for Ezion in an attempt to estimate its growth potential beyond its existing fleet and FY14. In our base case scenario, Ezion could add a further 4 vessels to its fleet during the rest of FY13 and another 8 in FY14 if it gears up to 1.3x, resulting in a 3/15% increase in our FY14/15F core earnings . Our recurring 3-year EPS CAGR will rise from 49% to 56%. There is room for further upside to our revised numbers from JV projects, sales & leaseback and equity raising exercises, which we have not factored in yet.
Fast growing international footprint.  
As a relatively young player that started off in 2007, Ezion has made a significant breakthrough by securing liftboat/service rig contracts from national and independent oil companies for offshore Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Myanmar, Vietnam, India, Middle East,  and even as far as Denmark and Mexico. Given the low penetration rate of liftboats in Southeast Asia, Ezion is well positioned to ride the potential rising substitution for liftboats and service rigs over workboats in the region. In addition, its strengthening ties with Pemex would allow Ezion to tap into the robust offshore activities in GOM.
BUY with a higher TP of S$3.00.
We like Ezion’s unique business model that offers fascinating growth and high earnings visibility supported by long term contracts of 3-5 years. Ezion deserves to trade above the average of its small-mid-cap O&G service provider peers (10x PE) and closer to its 5-year peak of 19x. Hence, we are lifting our valuation peg from 12x to 14x, on revised blended FY13/14F recurring EPS, to arrive at a higher TP of S$3.00. Maintain BUY.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

***** Trading BUY: Rowsley broke out of 0.455. Share price 0.46.

Following up from Previous call made on May 29, Last Wednesday. Rowsley has indeed broken out of it consolidation phase. As long as 0.45 holds as new support, short term upside intact. Target to 0.500 then 0.53. See previous call for more info.
0.465 clearing fast.

Property Counter to Short if Support is broken: Capitaland. (CFD TO Short sell Only)

Capitaland supported at 3.40 currently, has seen it touched the 3.40 level again today but still maintained above it. If this support breaks down, likely to head lower to probably 3.20 to 3.20 level.
Currently still holding above this support level. Can see that it has maintained above this 3.40 level since Nov Last year till now, like for seller to push it lower if support broken. One thing to NOTE is that it has broken below the 200 DAY MA ( Dotted Blue line) 3 days back and still below it as of now. If support at 3.40 does break down, short term downside likely with a Buy stop at 3.44.

****** Accumulate on Dips: Yoma. Share price 0.97 (Watch the breakout of Critical 1.00)

Yoma has broken the 0.925 resistance yesterday which was the high set in Feb this year. Support currently at 0.90 to 0.925. Yoma is likely to consolidate from 0.925 to 1.00 before testing critical 1.00. Can consider accumulating on dips near support level. Bullish in the short if the 1.00 and 1.005 clears out completely. As long as 0.900 holds as support, short term upside is still valid. A break above 1.00 can see it go to 1.10 possibly fast to see a new all time high. We will average up on the break of 1.005. Currently at TOP 5 Volume and forming new high.
Stop loss at 0.89.
DBSV – 4TH JUNE 2013
Digicel makes compelling bid for Myanmar telco;
On Yoma: As discussed previously, a telco win would be positive for Yoma to evolve into a conglomerate and would add earnings/value to the stock over the long term. However, even a 5% stake in this US$6.6b project would require US$330m of capital. We feel Yoma may find the capital requirement challenging, but not impossible, to address at this juncture.

We have not factored in a telco license win for Yoma. If the consortium is successful, it could boost sentiment towards Yoma. However, the actual earnings impact may be immaterial, and possibly negative, in the first years because of aggressive initial capital investment.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

**** Upward trend still intact above 1.00: Halcyon. Share price 1.04

Following up from Previous call made last Friday 31st May 2013. Halcyon has indeed tested the 1.00 critical psychological resistance together and broke out convincingly. Currently at 1.03. Can consider to accumulate some on dips for those who have already made an exit at a reasonable profit. Support would now be 1.00 strongly. As long as this 1.00 holds in the near term, still a bullish stock to accumulate. Upward momentum don look like it’s going to stop anytime soon. Short term target now at 1.10. Might consolidate awhile like we have seen previously before testing resistance again.
Stop loss at 0.985 nevertheless.

***** Monitor closely: Yongnam. Share price 0.35. (Impending Breakout)

Following up from previous call made on 7th May 2013. Yongnam has consolidated for about 2 weeks from 0.32 to 0.35 range. Monitor the breakout of 0.355 and 0.36. Those in view of a breakout can consider locking some positions around this level. Can considering averaging up on the breakout. Near term target price on breakout would be 0.38 to 0.400 level. As long as 0.35 holds as a new support level, short term upside intact.
Stop loss at 0.335.
Maybank KE – 4TH June 2013
Yongnam International: Waiting on the “East Wind”; Buy TP $0.485
YNH SP | Mkt Cap USD341.9m | ADTV USD3.5m
Ø  Based on our latest info, we believe the indicative results for both Myanmar airport bids will come soon than earlier expected. We reiterate BUY and will be hosting management on an NDR in Hong Kong in June.
Ø  We now expect the award for extension of Yangon airport to arrive any moment. Estimated contract value is USD150m. Ascribing a 50% probability of winning to Yongnam, we add SGD0.045 to our TP.
Ø  The company announced a new 5-year SGD130m syndicated loan last week. This will be sufficient to fund the equity contributions for both airport projects. It also implies management is thinking big in terms of contract wins. We believe the impending announcements of the Myanmar airport projects will serve as concrete share price catalysts. We reiterate BUY with a street-high new TP of SGD0.485. 

Monday, June 3, 2013

***** Trading Breakout: Dukang. Share price 0.56.

Dukang has traded from 0.500 to 0.55 level for about a week and again today we have seen a breakout of 0.55 resistance level. New support now at 0.55 level. Short term target possible at 0.600. A break above 0.600 can see it trade higher to find new consolidation phase. Follow up from previous call made on 22 May 2013. As long as 0.55 hold, upside and momentum remains intact. Can consider averaging up on 0.600 breakout. TOP 30 Volume seen currently.
Stop loss at 0.535
See report from Next insights
Keeping up the momentum
The Dukang brand was recently endorsed by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  More than 200 embassies worldwide will have the option to serve Dukang baijiu at official banquets and use the liquor as official gifts presented to foreign dignitaries. In 4Q2013, it will step up on advertising and promotion (A&P) activities to bring the Dukang brand another leg up.  The management expects to increase its A&P activities in the quarters ahead but will ensutr that A&P expense over sales ratio will stay within 12% for the full year.
It will also start production of 700 new fermentation pools in July or August 2013, adding another 3,000 tonnes of grain alcohol production capacity to the existing 7,610 tonnes per year.