Yongnam: 1st target at 0.300 nearing, but may still have legs to the reversal, price 0.29

Earlier on this month in August, we saw some pretty good actions in Yongnam and inner circle members were alerter...

That was when we spotted the move above the 0.24 key resistance level with some good factors pointing to more strength...

Clients were alerted thereafter too...

See what was sent out then..

For illustration purpose only

Over the past 3 weeks, we saw it traded to a high at 0.28 before some profit taking set in..

And then some consolidation from 0.25 to 0.28 before...

We are starting to see something interesting again on the system.... PTI grads can check..

May attempt a move above the 0.300 soon where it can give way to more strength above....

Targets can be revised upwards to 0.35 – 0.36 if that specific price actions happens.... ;)

See where we are below now...

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For illustration purpose only

**** Broke Temp Support: Yongnam. Share price 0.335. (Short term downside possible before rebound)

Yongnam has broken down immediate support level at 0.34 which was holding for more than 2 weeks. Can head lower to 0.32 then 0.300 level on further market weakness. Accumulate on dips near 0.30 to 0.32 for longer term investors who believe in the Myanmar growth story. Short term traders can consider riding the short term down tick USING CFD and cover near lower support levels.

 

DBSV – 17^TH JUNE 2013

Go for high conviction growth and value stocks. As
macro recovery remains modest, pick stocks where
earnings growth is highly visible and sustainable:Ezion
(TP S$3.00) will continue to outperform on secured
contracts and its unique market positioning; Tat Hong
(TP: S$1.80) is positioned to benefit from the regional
infrastructure boom; Del Monte (TP: S$0.97) is a proxy
to Philippines, SEA’s 2nd largest consumer market.
Kreuz (TP: S$0.78) is our top pick in the O&G services
sector for its proven execution track record while Midas
(TP: S$0.60) is poised for earnings recovery backed by its
growing order book. For value, Vard (TP: S$1.46) is a
bargain at 6.3x FY14PE vs normalized 10x PE.

Situational plays. Myanmar is a unique theme which
has been running independent of world economics for
some time now. We believe the Myanmar theme will
continue as reforms continue to attract FDIs. Results of
telecom license and Yangon Airport development
contracts are imminent events. Picks are Yoma (TP:
S$1.08) and Yongnam (TP: S$0.41). 

**** Yongnam: Staging a Rebound? Share price 0.365.

Yongnam has cleared its immediate resistance at 0.36 which it has stay below for about a week after the market sell down last week. Seems like it is making a comeback as buyers start to accumulate on dips. Possible to rebound back up to 0.38 level if the 0.36 holds as support. A break above 0.38 can see it go the 0.400 in the short term. Generally still supported above 20 DAY MA line (Green line) at 0.35 currently which signifies that short term upside still intact.  Immediate support at 0.34 then 0.300.

Stop loss below 0.34 for short term trades

 

DBSV – 10^th June 2013

Myanmar

Ride on coattails of Myanmar’s reforms

• Myanmar’s growth is fast and sustainable,
• Abundant opportunities in consumer, tourism, infrastructure and O&G sectors,
• Direct access is limited; invest through foreign companies already in or expanding into Myanmar

 

Reforms have been progressive. Despite skepticisms and multiple challenges, Myanmar’s sweeping reforms have resulted in further easing of sanctions on the country, which in turn is drawing new aids, more visitors and even higher interest to trade and invest in Myanmar. Foreign direct investments (FDIs) have reportedly jumped >40% to US$1.4bn in FY2013 while tourist arrivals have surged 54% to 1m. ADB projected that Myanmar GDP would expand >6% in 2013 and could grow 7-8% p.a. over the decade.
Singapore companies expanding in Myanmar are good gateways. Singapore companies are good proxies to ride on several segments in the country’s current stage of development.

 

Infrastructure:Infrastructure development and planning is rapidly underway. To fast track development, foreigners have been invited to bid for mobile networks, airports, and oil & gas exploration. We like Ezion (BUY, TP: S$3.00) andInterra Resources (NR, TP: S$0.57) as Oil & Gas proxies with operations there. Other potential beneficiaries include Yongnam (BUY, TP: S$0.41)in the development of airports, Tiong Seng (BUY, TP: S$0.33) to set up a pre-cast factory, and SingTel (HOLD, TP: S$3.80) in the bidding for a mobile phone license.

 

***** Monitor closely: Yongnam. Share price 0.35. (Impending Breakout)

Following up from previous call made on 7^th May 2013. Yongnam has consolidated for about 2 weeks from 0.32 to 0.35 range. Monitor the breakout of 0.355 and 0.36. Those in view of a breakout can consider locking some positions around this level. Can considering averaging up on the breakout. Near term target price on breakout would be 0.38 to 0.400 level. As long as 0.35 holds as a new support level, short term upside intact.

Stop loss at 0.335.

 

Maybank KE – 4^TH June 2013

Yongnam International: Waiting on the “East Wind”; Buy TP $0.485

YNH SP | Mkt Cap USD341.9m | ADTV USD3.5m

Ø  Based on our latest info, we believe the indicative results for both Myanmar airport bids will come soon than earlier expected. We reiterate BUY and will be hosting management on an NDR in Hong Kong in June.

Ø  We now expect the award for extension of Yangon airport to arrive any moment. Estimated contract value is USD150m. Ascribing a 50% probability of winning to Yongnam, we add SGD0.045 to our TP.

Ø  The company announced a new 5-year SGD130m syndicated loan last week. This will be sufficient to fund the equity contributions for both airport projects. It also implies management is thinking big in terms of contract wins. We believe the impending announcements of the Myanmar airport projects will serve as concrete share price catalysts. We reiterate BUY with a street-high new TP of SGD0.485. 

 

****** Trading Buy: Yongnam. Share price 0.34.

Yongnam has consolidated below 0.34 for about a week and again broke above this 0.34 immediate resistance today. High seen today is 0.35 currently. If the 0.35 level breaks out, can see it go to 0.38 to 0.400 eventually. A follow up from previous call made last Thursday 7^th May 2013 . Top 5 volume seen currently on break out once again which shows upward momentum in placed.

Stop loss below 0.32.

 

Maybank KE: Yongnam Holdings: Positioning Ahead of Contract Wins; Buy TP $0.43
YNH SP | Mkt Cap USD334.9m | ADTV USD2.9m
Ø  Reiterate BUY ahead of 2H13. Our TP of SGD0.43 is pegged to 10x FY13F.
Ø  1Q13 results were largely within expectation. Revenue grew 22% yoy. Profit was flat yoy, but this was in comparison to exceptional margins in the same quarter last year.
Ø  We expect margins to pick up on execution of strutting orderbook which has higher margins and the commencement of new contract wins. Management is gunning for several contracts in 2H13 which will replenish orderbook substantially.

 

 CIMB - A late bloomer  - OUTPERFORM - Maintained | S$0.33 - Tgt. S$0.36

After four quarters of declining revenue and profitability, Yongnam’s return to growth in 1Q13 is a breath of fresh air. We think that its share price outperformance YTD still has legs as the Myanmar project is Yongnam's to lose. At 17% of our FY13 forecast, 1Q13 net profit was in line with our expectation as we stick to our assumption that 65% of this year’s earnings will only come through in 2H13. Our EPS estimates and target price (still at 6x CY14 P/E, its 3-year mean) are unchanged. We maintain an Outperform as the group is poised to land some mega accretive projects.

 

*** Trading Buy: Yongnam. Share price 0.325. (Broken out of 5 year consolidation phase at this level)

Yongnam has been trading below the 0.33 level since NOV 2007. It has broken out of this 5 years consolidation phase today. As long as 0.32 and 0.30 stays as the new support level, it is possible to head higher target to 0.38 near term. Volume at Top 4 currently on this critical breakout which signal more interest.

Stop loss at 0.29.

 

UOBKH: Yongnam Holdings Ltd (YNH SP, Y02) -  Technical BUY with +26.9% potential return  Last price: S$0.315 Resistance: S$0.40 Support: S$0.29  BUY with a target price of S$0.40 with tight stops placed below S$0.295. The stock has been trading sideways for more than three years and has been trending above its 50day moving average after having formed a golden cross earlier. Its Stochastics indicator has hooked up and its MACD indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover.   Our retail research has a fundamental BUY with a target price of S$0.40. 

 

Ø  Maybank KE: Yongnam Holdings: Positive NDR affirms our conviction BUY, TP $0.45 Our recently concluded non-deal roadshow in Singapore drew high levels of interest from institutional fund managers, with the Asian infrastructure theme of particular relevance.Ø  Management expects the resumption of major contract wins in the 2nd half of this year, which we think will be positive stock catalysts.Ø  Yongnam’s consortium is amongst the front-runners for the Myanmar airport projects. We reiterate BUY ahead of 2H13, which is shaping up to be an interesting period with major catalysts in store. 

 

Watch the Breakout: Yongnam. Share price 0.26.

Has been consolidating from 0.22 to 0.265 since Aug 2011. Tested the 0.265 critical resistance a total of 5 times during this period but had failed to clear above. Top 30 Volume currently seem. Monitor closely.

A convincing break above the 0.265 level can see it rise to 0.29 in the near term. As long as 0.265 remains as the new resistance turned support level, more upside possible. A break above 0.29 can pave the way to 0.300 to 0.315 level.

Stop loss at 0.25 nevertheless

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YONGNAM CHART - volume strong today, now at 0.275, broke the resistance at 0.27, next short term target price to 0.29.