******* Downside still in placed: Noble Group.Share price 0.82. (CFD SELL position still possible to ride the down trend)

Following up from last Friday, 16 Aug 2013 Sell call. Noble has indeed traded lower on a much weaker market for the past few days to a low of 0.81 today.  Likely to consolidate from 0.80 to 0.84 level before any direction is confirmed. Resistance can be kept at 0.85 for now.  Possible to accumulate more SHORT positions on any rebound near 0.85. As long 0.85 is a resistance, we are STILL bearish, in this case a downside breakdown of 0.800 will trigger a bearish acceleration towards to 0.74 to 0.76 near term targets. Aggressive traders can add more short position on break down of critical 0.800 support level and lower buy stop level.

Buy Stop at 0.86 for short position now.

 

 

OCBC – 12 AUG 2013

Noble Group Ltd: Downgrade to SELL with S$0.76 FV
Summary: Noble Group (Noble) reported a poor set of 1H13 results last Wed, marred by losses in its Agricultural segment in 2Q13, such that reported earnings only met 20% of our full-year forecast. No doubt the second half tends to be seasonally stronger; but we suspect that its Agriculture segment could continue to be a drag on its overall profitability. As such, we see the need to sharply reduce our FY13 earnings forecast by as much as 43% (FY14 by 18%); the group’s targeted cost savings will probably have a more meaningful impact in FY14. Even as we roll forward our 10x valuation to blended FY13/FY14F EPS, our fair value will drop sharply from S$1.09 to S$0.76. Downgrade our call from Hold to SELL.