***** Trading Buy: Halcyon. Share price 0.92. (Follow up from previous call)

A follow up from previous call made on Tuesday, 28^th May 2013.

Halcyon has again tested and broke above the 0.900 resistance level. Upward momentum looks strong still and support now remains as 0.900. Possible to accumulate on dips near support level. Short term target to critical 1.00 level, Will average up on this 1.00 break out. As long as 0.900 holds as new support, uptrend intact and we are bullish. Likely to consolidated above 0.900 to 0.95 before staging a new high.

Stop loss at 0.885.

 

UOBKH – 27^th March 2013

Valuations

• Halcyon Agri (Halcyon) is trading at 9.5x 2012 PE and 3.6x

P/B. Its 2012 net profit jumped by about 130% yoy to reach

US$10m.

Investment Highlights

• A solid midstream natural rubber player. Halcyon

operates in the midstream segment of the natural rubber

supply chain. This involves: a) procurement of raw rubber,

b) processing into technically specified rubber, and c) selling

to vehicle tyre manufacturers. It had a production capacity

of 92,380mt p.a. as of end-12 and is set to expand its

capacity by 65% within the next three years. Halcyon owns

and operates two processing facilities in Palembang,

Sumatra, while its merchandising and marketing office is in

Singapore.

Strong cash flow to support potential M&As. Halcyon

generated FCF of US$7m in 2012 and this boosted its cash

balance by 42% yoy to hit US$12m. We see the potential for

M&As in the upstream segment, which would enhance

Halcyon’s position in the natural rubber supply chain,

expand its earnings potential and capture better margins.

 

*** Short trade (Sell): Biosensors. Share price 1.16. (CFD Short Trade)

Biosensors has broken support and 1.185 convincingly today. Has closed at 1.16 today. Has broken down head and shoulder neckline support formed at 1.185. Note that it has also been supported above 1.185 since Dec last year till today but broke down today. Cautious. More downside to 1.15 then 1.10 might be possible. Possible to accumulate short positions below 1.185 level and take profit near 1.10 support.

Buy Stop at 1.205.

 

Maybank KE: 13 March 2013- Biosensors Int’l: Turning More Conservative; Downgrade to Hold, TP $1.28

We cut FY3/13-15F net profit forecasts by 9-11% and reduce our TP to SGD1.28 as we turn more cautious. We thus downgrade the stock to a Hold, seeing limited upside to our revised TP.

Ø      We believe that Terumo may struggle to regain market share in the next 1-2 quarters. M&A seems likely in 2013 but without any specifics, it could be tough to make a call on whether it would be positive or negative.

Ø       While Biosensors looks cheap at 12.6x FY3/14F PER, we do not expect its licensing revenue with Terumo to last for forever. This is the key reason why our TP is lower than consensus. We value it separately using DCF but we have attributed a fair 18x PER multiple on its core business. 

 

*** Monitor - Short Term Speculative Trade: GSH Corp. Share price 0.080. (Not for holding, short term with tight stop loss)

GSH has just tested and broken the 0.08 psychological resistance level. At this level, it has also just crossed above BOTH the 20 DAY MA (Green line) and the 200 DAY MA (Dotted blue line), which can signal short term uptrend in placed. More confirmation needed though and it has to cross 0.081 and 0.082 for more serious buyers to bring it higher. If that happens, short term target to 0.084 then 0.09. Currently at Top 5 Volume. If it stays and closes above 0.08, more potential upside possible and new support at 0.08.

Stop loss at 0.076 tightly

 

***** Monitor Closely: Rowsley. Share price 0.445. (Possible to stage a break out real soon)

Follow up from previous call made on 29^th April 2013. Rowsley has been consolidating for more than 2 months below the critical 0.445 - 0.45 resistance level. Currently at Top 20 volume and high as of now is 0.45. Those looking for this break out can consider locking in some Long positions around these levels. More upside if the 0.455 and 0.46 sellers get lifted. Will average up on this break out with a near term target of 0.48 to 0.500. As long as 0.45 becomes the new support upon break out and holds, we are bullish in the near term.

Stop loss at 0.43.

**** CFD SHORT (SELL) Trade: Indo Agri. Share price 1.035. (CFD SHORT TRADE)

Follow up from TA CALL Made on 30^th April. Indo Agri has broken down temp support at 1.05-1.06 yesterday and closed at 1.035. Currently at 1.035 level which is still below the new resistance at 1.06. As long as it does not break back up above 1.06, possible to consolidate at this lower level from 1.00 to 1.05 and still a bearish view in the short term. Critical psychological support at 1.00, if this level does not hold, we will average down more short positions and take profit around the 0.95 to 0.96 region.

Stop loss at 1.075.

 

***** All time high again: Ezion - Share price 2.42. (Has broken its resistance to reach a new high again.)

Following up on TA call made on 10^th May 2013, Ezion has again broken its temporary resistance and is now at a new high again. As long as 2.40 holds as a new support, we are bullish with a short term target price of 2.50. A break above critical 2.50 can see it seek new consolidation phase. Doesn’t seem like its rise is going to stop any time soon.  Possible to accumulate on dips near support and average up on any breakouts.

Stop loss at 2.37 for short term trades 

*** Trading Buy: Halcyon. Share price 0.81.

Halcyon has been consolidating below the 0.800 level for about a week and has staged a breakout above the 0.800 Psychological resistance level this morning. High today was 0.825. Short term uptrend is in placed if 0.800 remains as the new resistance turned support. As long as 0.800 holds, we are bullish with a short term target of 0.84 to 0.86 level.

Stop loss at 0.785 nevertheless.

 

UOBKH – 27^th March 2013

Valuations

• Halcyon Agri (Halcyon) is trading at 9.5x 2012 PE and 3.6x

P/B. Its 2012 net profit jumped by about 130% yoy to reach

US$10m.

Investment Highlights

• A solid midstream natural rubber player. Halcyon

operates in the midstream segment of the natural rubber

supply chain. This involves: a) procurement of raw rubber,

b) processing into technically specified rubber, and c) selling

to vehicle tyre manufacturers. It had a production capacity

of 92,380mt p.a. as of end-12 and is set to expand its

capacity by 65% within the next three years. Halcyon owns

and operates two processing facilities in Palembang,

Sumatra, while its merchandising and marketing office is in

Singapore.

Strong cash flow to support potential M&As. Halcyon

generated FCF of US$7m in 2012 and this boosted its cash

balance by 42% yoy to hit US$12m. We see the potential for

M&As in the upstream segment, which would enhance

Halcyon’s position in the natural rubber supply chain,

expand its earnings potential and capture better margins.

 

*** Cordlife: Strong uptick momentum in placed. Share price 1.095.

Cordlife has staged a strong  rebound from support at 1.00. Has cleared last week high of 1.075 and currently at 1.095. Possible to accumulate on dips as near term uptrend still in place. A break above the 1.10 resistance level can see it go higher to find a new high. Support at 1.10 if it manages to stay above. Follow up from previous post on 17th May 2013.

Stop loss at 1.08 for short term trades

 

Standard Chartered: Cordlife
Main themes discussed/Key points
n Market leadership: Cordlife Group (CLGL) is the largest cord blood bank in Singapore, with a 62% market share, and the second-largest operator in Hong Kong, with a 28% market share as of 2010.
n Technological leadership: CLGL was the first cord blood bank in Southeast Asia to be accredited by AABB (formerly the American Association of Blood Banks). It was the first, in Singapore, to release processed cord blood units for treatments of cerebral palsy in 2009 and neuroblastoma in 2010.
n Growth visibility: CLGL is expanding its geographic coverage to Indonesia, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand, through proposed acquisitions and a strategic alliance. Deloitte & Touche Financial Advisory Services (DTFAS) expects existing markets such as Singapore and China to grow at a 2010-15 CAGR of 9% and 23%, respectively.

 

 

**** Watch the Breakout: Thai Beverage. Share price 0.695.

Thai Beverage is testing the critical 0.700 level currently on TOP 2 VOLUME. If it manages to break and stay above this 0.700 level, can see it trend higher and find a new high probably from 0.74 to 0.75 region. Has been consolidating from more than a week from 0.65 to 0.685 level and finally some movement today seen. A follow up from last Monday 13^th May 2013 technical buy call.

Stop loss at 0.67.

 

StanChart – 22 May 2013

n We visited Myanmar and met the management of Fraser & Neave (F&N), Myanmar Brewery‟s controlling shareholders. n The country‟s extended isolation has led to a shortage of basic consumer items – and a thirst for beer. Myanmar could generate 47% of Thai Beverage (Thai Bev)‟s beer volume growth in 2013-17. n We consider Thai Bev an excellent proxy for the opportunities in Myanmar, despite rising competition. Thai Bev has a 29% stake in F&N and we believe there is a strong likelihood of a restructuring. We estimate Myanmar Brewery would represent 8% of Thai Bev‟s NAV under the restructuring scenario.

 

 

*** Trading Buy: Dukang. Share price 0.52.

Dukang has again cleared the psychological 0.500 resistance level, has opened at 0.52 today with Strong TOP 3 volume. More upside to test 0.55 possible. Following up from previous call made last Tuesday when it broke the 0.45 level. As long as 0.500 remains as resistance turned support level, short term upside is intact.

Stop loss as 0.485. 

*** Short Term Trading Buy: YHM. Share price 0.046.

YHM currently at TOP volume has tested an broken the 0.045 critical resistance level. Has been consolidating below this level since Nov last year till now and has tested it about 5 times since then. Today’s high seen as 0.048 currently. Resistance has turned support at 0.045. As long as 0.045 holds as a new support, upside to test 0.05 is possible. A break above 0.05 can see it trend higher to find a new high or consolidation.

Stop loss at 0.043 tightly. 

*** Trading Buy: United Enviro Tech. Share price 0.905.

UtdEnvirotech has cleared the 0.835 and 0.85 resistance level last week on strength. Currently testing the critical 0.900 level. If it manages to stay above, more upside entails. Currently at an all time high. Short term target to 0.95 and 1.00. As long as 0.900 holds as a new support level, upside momentum sill in placed. We can see higher highs on each new trading day which shows us that the bulls are stronger and taking the sellers out at higher price.

Stop loss at 0.885.

  

OCBC - United Envirotech: Inks another project in Jiangsu - 2^nd April 2013
United Envirotech Ltd (UEL) has recently inked an agreement worth RMB200m (S$40m) with the local government of Siyang County, Jiangsu Province, China for TOT (Transfer-Operate-Transfer) and BOT (Built-Operate-Transfer) projects in an industrial park for the textile industry. Management intends to finance its latest investment using proceeds from the previous convertible bond issue to KRR and bank financing. Based on its usual 40% equity/60% debt financing model, UEL would need around S$5.6m for Phase 1 of the TOT project, which should not be an issue as it is currently sitting on ~S$63.2m of cash (as at 31 Dec 2012). In light of the latest investment, we bump up our FY14 estimates for revenue by 1.5% and earnings by 4.9%; this in turn raises our fair value from S$0.88 to S$0.90, still based on 13x FY14F EPS. Maintain BUY.

 

 

 

*** Potential Breakout trade: Cordlife. Share price 0.875. (Short term uptrend in placed)

Cordlife has staged a strong uptrend since breaking out above the 0.800 level at the beginning of May. Current support at 0.85 level then 0.825 which was resistance turned support. Might be consolidating from 0.85 to 0.90 level before testing and breaking the critical 0.900 psychological level. Those waiting for this break can considering accumulating around these trading range from 0.85 to 0.90. As long as 0.825 holds as final support, uptrend still intact in the short term. A break above 0.900 can see it test 1.00 quickly. We would average up on this break out.

P.S  -  Those who have followed our Call made on 22 Jan 2013 when it was 0.615 then would have achieve more than 40% return on capital.

Stop loss at 0.795.

 

****** Trading Buy: Yongnam. Share price 0.34.

Yongnam has consolidated below 0.34 for about a week and again broke above this 0.34 immediate resistance today. High seen today is 0.35 currently. If the 0.35 level breaks out, can see it go to 0.38 to 0.400 eventually. A follow up from previous call made last Thursday 7^th May 2013 . Top 5 volume seen currently on break out once again which shows upward momentum in placed.

Stop loss below 0.32.

 

Maybank KE: Yongnam Holdings: Positioning Ahead of Contract Wins; Buy TP $0.43
YNH SP | Mkt Cap USD334.9m | ADTV USD2.9m
Ø  Reiterate BUY ahead of 2H13. Our TP of SGD0.43 is pegged to 10x FY13F.
Ø  1Q13 results were largely within expectation. Revenue grew 22% yoy. Profit was flat yoy, but this was in comparison to exceptional margins in the same quarter last year.
Ø  We expect margins to pick up on execution of strutting orderbook which has higher margins and the commencement of new contract wins. Management is gunning for several contracts in 2H13 which will replenish orderbook substantially.

 

 CIMB - A late bloomer  - OUTPERFORM - Maintained | S$0.33 - Tgt. S$0.36

After four quarters of declining revenue and profitability, Yongnam’s return to growth in 1Q13 is a breath of fresh air. We think that its share price outperformance YTD still has legs as the Myanmar project is Yongnam's to lose. At 17% of our FY13 forecast, 1Q13 net profit was in line with our expectation as we stick to our assumption that 65% of this year’s earnings will only come through in 2H13. Our EPS estimates and target price (still at 6x CY14 P/E, its 3-year mean) are unchanged. We maintain an Outperform as the group is poised to land some mega accretive projects.

 

*** Potential Trade: Vard Holdings. Share price 1.125.

Vard has closed above the 1.10 psychological level yesterday at 1.12 and also broken up above the 20 DAY MA(Green line) yesterday. More short term upside can be possible to 1.16 first then 1.20. As long as 1.10 holds as new support, target to 1.20 possible.

Stop loss at 1.085. 

** Short Term Trading Buy: Dukang. Share Price: 0.465.

Dukang has tested the 0.45 level yesterday but failed to break. Has seen Top 20 volume today and it broke the 0.45 level, currently at 0.46 level. More of a short term trade with tight stop loss. As long as 0.45 holds as new support level, upside to 0.500 can be possible in the short term. A break above 0.500 can see it go to 0.600 while consolidating. Possible to enter into long positions from 0.45 to 0.46 level and trade to near 0.500 profit level.

Stop loss tight at 0.44. 

**** Monitor the Breakout Closely: Thai Bev. Share price 0.64.

Currently in Top 3 volume, Thbev looks set to test the 0.65 resistance level which was the high last month. Tested 2 times at 0.65 last month but failed to cross above then. Traders looking for a breakout can consider taking long positions at these level.  A break above 0.65 can see it go to 0.700 in the near term. We would add our long position on this breakout and take profit around the 0.68 to 0.700 region.

Stop loss at 0.635 if the breakout does occur. 

**** The Unstoppable: Ezion. Share price 2.26. (Trading Buy)

Ezion has broken up resistance level at 2.23 level. Momentum still looks as strong as ever as investors accumulate on any temporary dips. At this level, it is currently at an all time high again and looks good to head up further to test 2.40 level and find new high. A break above 2.30 can see more upside as long as 2.23 remains as new support level.

Stop loss at 2.18

 

Maybank KE - Ezion Holdings: Entering the High Growth Years; Buy TP $2.56 (10 May 2013)
EZI SP | Mkt Cap USD1.7b | ADTV USD12m
Ø  Maintain BUY on Ezion as we raise our valuation multiple to 15x FY13F PER (from 13x), TP SGD2.56. We believe that previous concerns on high gearing have mostly dissipated as Ezion demonstrates astute use of its capital.
Ø  1Q13 results were within expectations. Our forecast of 51% growth in FY13F EPS and a CAGR of 40% over FY13-15F remain well on track to be met. These high growth expectations are primarily backed by secured charter contracts limiting the risk of major misses.
Ø  We see sequential quarterly growth as more liftboat units are deployed. Net gearing has risen to 0.83x in 1Q13 and is expected to rise further in subsequent quarters.

 

CIMB Ezion Holdings - Cruise control (09/05)
At 24% of our FY13 forecast, 1Q13 results were actually above expectations, as stronger quarters are anticipated with five more liftboats/service rigs to be added through the year to its current 12. Catalysts could come from stronger-than-expected orders.  1Q core EPS was 20% above our expectation (11% above consensus) from higher gross margins and other income. We increase our FY13-15 core EPS by 3-8% to incorporate recent service-rig contracts, the divestment of its OMSA JV, contributions from marine supply bases and higher EBIT margins. Maintain Outperform with a higher target price following our EPS upgrade, still based on blended P/E and P/BV valuations. 

*** Potential Trade Setup: Olam. Share price 1.81. (Broken up 200 DAY MA)

Olam has broken up above the 1.80 level today. A key thing to note is that it has Broken above the 200 DAY MA - 1.78 level (Dotted blue line) which can signify a longer term recovery is in place. You can see that it has been trading below the dotted blue line mostly ever since Mar 2011. More upside in the short term if it stays above the 1.80 level.  As long as 1.80 holds as the new support, Olam can find a new consolidation above it. Top 30 Volume seen currently.

Stop loss 1.77.

 

Trading Buy Call: Genting HK. Share price: 0.505.

Genting HK has cleared the psychological 0.500 resistance level which it has consolidated below for about 2 weeks. Currently at 0.505. Top 30 Volume seen currently. Almost reaching the high set in September 2010 which was at 0.55 level. Possible for it to test this critical level again if it managed to stay above 0.500. Resistance has turned support at 0.500. As long as 0.500 holds well, short term upside to 0.55 can be possible. A break above 0.55 can see it find a new high at 0.60

Stop loss at 0.485 

** Potential trade Opportunity: Yoma. Share price 0.855.

Yoma has broken up temp resistance level at 0.85. Have been consolidating below this level for about 2 months already. Currently at 0.855. Near term upside to 0.900 possible on TOP 20 Volume seen currently. New support at 0.85 has formed on this break out. A break above 0.900 can see it test 0.925 quickly which was the all time high set in Jan. Mainly a Myanmar property play.

Stop loss at 0.835 

*** Trading Buy: Yongnam. Share price 0.325. (Broken out of 5 year consolidation phase at this level)

Yongnam has been trading below the 0.33 level since NOV 2007. It has broken out of this 5 years consolidation phase today. As long as 0.32 and 0.30 stays as the new support level, it is possible to head higher target to 0.38 near term. Volume at Top 4 currently on this critical breakout which signal more interest.

Stop loss at 0.29.

 

UOBKH: Yongnam Holdings Ltd (YNH SP, Y02) -  Technical BUY with +26.9% potential return  Last price: S$0.315 Resistance: S$0.40 Support: S$0.29  BUY with a target price of S$0.40 with tight stops placed below S$0.295. The stock has been trading sideways for more than three years and has been trending above its 50day moving average after having formed a golden cross earlier. Its Stochastics indicator has hooked up and its MACD indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover.   Our retail research has a fundamental BUY with a target price of S$0.40. 

 

Ø  Maybank KE: Yongnam Holdings: Positive NDR affirms our conviction BUY, TP $0.45 Our recently concluded non-deal roadshow in Singapore drew high levels of interest from institutional fund managers, with the Asian infrastructure theme of particular relevance.Ø  Management expects the resumption of major contract wins in the 2nd half of this year, which we think will be positive stock catalysts.Ø  Yongnam’s consortium is amongst the front-runners for the Myanmar airport projects. We reiterate BUY ahead of 2H13, which is shaping up to be an interesting period with major catalysts in store. 

 

**** Trading Sell (CFD): Cosco Corp. Share price 0.795. (CFD short trade)

Cosco Corp has indeed broken the 0.800 psychological support level today. Now at 0.795. Possible to increase short positions on this break down as mentioned earlier. Buy stop at 0.815.

 

Posted yesterday – 6 May 2013

Cosco Corp has broken below key 0.855 support level that it has held above since the whole of 2012 to last Friday. Today’s sharp drop is mainly due to weaker than expected results announced and a flurry of Sell calls from analysts. Technically, support has now turned resistance at 0.85 level. As long as 0.85 remains as a resistance level and Cosco does not go above it, still bearish in the short to midterm. Next support at 0.800. A break below this 0.800 can see it go lower further probably to test 0.700 level. Will increase short positions on this break of 0.800 psychological support level. Note that the low in Oct 2008 after the global financial crisis is at 0.625 level.

Buy stop at 0.86.  

Trading Buy: Ezion Hldg. Share price 2.12. (Uptrend in placed)

Ezion has crossed above the 2.10 psychological resistance level. Currently at 2.12. Was consolidating below it for about 2 weeks before breaking up today. At current levels, it has also broken above the 20 DAY MA (Green line) which can signal short term upside. Next target would be 2.18 then 2.20. Recent high in April was 2.23, a break above this can see it test 2.30 to find a new high. For short term, as long as 2.10 hold, we are bullish.

Stop loss at 2.08. 

*** Trading SELL (Short): Cosco Corp. Share price 0.83. (CFD Short trade)

Cosco Corp has broken below key 0.855 support level that it has held above since the whole of 2012 to last Friday. Today’s sharp drop is mainly due to weaker than expected results announced and a flurry of Sell calls from analysts. Technically, support has now turned resistance at 0.85 level. As long as 0.85 remains as a resistance level and Cosco does not go above it, still bearish in the short to midterm. Next support at 0.800. A break below this 0.800 can see it go lower further probably to test 0.700 level. Will increase short positions on this break of 0.800 psychological support level. Note that the low in Oct 2008 after the global financial crisis is at 0.625 level.

Buy stop at 0.86.

 

OCBC: Cosco Corp (S’pore): Downgrade to SELL - missed expectations
Summary: COSCO Corp (S’pore)’s 1Q13 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders came in at S$733m (-25% YoY) and S$9.7m (-65% YoY) respectively. Turnover from shipyard operations, consisting of ship repair and shipbuilding, decreased by 26% YoY to S$719m in 1Q13 (1Q12: S$966m), while turnover for dry bulk shipping and other businesses increased by 8% YoY to S$13.8m (1Q12: S$12.8m). All in all, 1Q13 performance was disappointing with PATMI forming only about 9-10% of ours and consensus’ FY13F estimates. We now cut our FY13F-14F PATMI estimates by 50-60% and pare our fair value estimates to S$0.76 (previously S$0.90) on 1.3x P/B. We expect the street to do the same. Downgrade from Hold to SELL

 

Maybank KE: Cosco Corp: Big Earnings Miss; Maintain SELL, TP $0.73

Ø  Reiterate SELL, TP of SGD0.73 pegged to 1.3x trough P/BV. A disastrous set of 1Q13 results with revenue of SGD733.0m (-25% YoY, -13% QoQ) and PATMI of SGD9.7m (-65% YoY, -59% QoQ). Net profit made up only 9% of our and 10% of consensus’ full-year forecast.Ø  Cosco expects margins to contract further into the subsequent quarters due to lower-price contracts in its orderbook, rising labour cost and appreciating Chinese Yuan. Net orderbook stood at USD6.4b with only USD254m of orders secured YTD.Ø  We slash our FY13-14F earnings forecasts by 33-43% on the weak 1Q13 results and expect similar aggressive earnings cuts by consensus. Valuation is too rich at current levels given its declining profits and weak execution.

 

Trading buy: Osim. Share price 2.02. (Broken 2.00 psychological level)

Osim has cleared the critical 2.00 resistance level which it has tested more than a month ago. Has been consolidating from 1.92 to 2.00 level since the breakout in end of March 2013. More upside is possible in the short term to 2.10 then 2.20. Note that the high in Oct 2006 was 2.16 level, would be keen to see it touch the previous high again. As long as 2.00 remains as new support level, we are bullish.

Stop loss at 1.985.

 

By Maybank KE on 30 April 2013

OSIM International: Touched By An uAngel; Reiterate Buy, TP $2.60
OSIM SP | Mkt Cap USD1.2b | ADTV USD2.1m
Ø OSIM is announcing its 1Q13 results on 7 May after market close. We are expecting net profit of around SGD25.5m for the quarter (up 15% yoy), on double-digit sales growth.
Ø The uAngel has proven to be very popular according to our channel checks, and will likely boost YoY sales growth. However, the full effect will only be apparent from the 2nd quarter onward.
Ø Our TP of SGD2.60 remains a Street high, reflecting our bullishness for 2013. OSIM is our top pick within the Singapore consumer sector and we reiterate BUY.