Super Group has broken above its 2 weeks consolidation phase yesterday above 4.30 level. At current levels, it is also trading above the 20 DAY short term MA. Immediate support at 4.30 level. As long as 4.30 holds, more upside possible to 4.60, 4.80 then 5.00. Good to consider holding for the longer term as it has traded above the 200 DAY MA since last year Feb 2012 which signal then uptrend still intact for the longer term. A break above 5.00 can see it head higher to seek new consolidation phase.
Stop loss at 4.27 for short term traders
CIMB: Super Group - 13TH May 2013
Stronger than it looks
OUTPERFORM - Upgrade | S$4.85 - Tgt. S$5.22
Mkt.Cap: US$2185m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.02m | Free Float: 26.80%
� 1Q started well and could have been stronger. Ingredients successful penetration into S.E.A. means that this segment is now a proxy for developing markets' consumption in addition to its branded consumer segment. This makes the business more valuable today. 1Q13 core EPS was in line and forms 24% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We raise FY13-14 estimates by 16% as we were previously too negative on raw material prices. We raise our target price, with a higher multiple of 24x CY14 P/E (previously 20x) as: 1) Nestle Malaysia has re-rated and we lower our discount from 20% to 10%. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral with catalysts to come from stronger earnings growth in 2H.
Good 1Q despite riots in Myanmar
1Q's 25% earnings increase yoy was driven by: 1) rising gross margins and 2) forex gains from appreciating US$. This increase came in spite of muted branded consumer sales which could have been higher if not for the race riots in Myanmar (~ 20% of sales). Wholesalers are likely to re-stock once the situation subsides. This suggests that there could be 'deferred' revenue in 2H. Gross margins are sustainable as raw material prices continue to stay low and could remain that way. Robusta prices have declined after rising slightly this year while palm oil and sugar continue to decrease.
Ingredients - a developing market proxy
Ingredients' successful penetration into Indonesia and Thailand is a big positive. Sales into S.E.A. now form 49% of ingredients' revenue; it was 33% a year ago when we initiated coverage. Such a demographic makes the business more valuable.
Upgrade to Outperform
We are upgrading on: 1) higher estimates as our previous low estimates were guided by lower raw material prices and 2) higher multiple for the overall business as ingredients segment is increasingly skewed towards S.E.A. which makes it a developing market proxy in addition to the branded consumer segment.
Maybank KE - 14th May 2013
Super Group - Fresh coffee, fresh perspective (Buy, $4.85 - TP $6.30, SUPER SP, Consumer)
- Reiterate BUY. With resilient earnings and a free cash flow which will grow exponentially from next year, we think it is now appropriate to value the stock on a DCF basis, which yields a fresh Street-high TP of SGD6.30, implying 30% upside from here.
- 1Q13 results were within expectations. Recurring net profit growth of 30% yoy were driven by higher revenue and better margins.
- While we expect margins to moderate over the next few quarters, we still expect strength due to higher-value products coming on stream and economies of scale.